Risk-On Returns as Markets Eye Iran Deal
Markets started the week on a positive note as hopes of a potential U.S.-Iran agreement boosted risk appetite across global markets. Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a deal could be announced soon including the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped ease geopolitical concerns and sent oil prices sharply lower.
The improving backdrop fueled a broad rally across risk assets. U.S. equities pushed higher, with the S&P 500 extending to fresh record highs and technology stocks leading the advance.
Bitcoin also continued to show resilience, holding above key support despite Strategy’s recent Bitcoin sale, while investors shifted their attention toward one of the busiest weeks of the month, featuring major earnings releases, key labor market data, and SpaceX’s highly anticipated first earnings report as a public company.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC continues consolidating just below the key $63,940 resistance after successfully defending the $63,100-$63,300 support zone.
A breakout above $63,940 could trigger a move toward $64,770 and $64,970, where a large concentration of short liquidity is positioned.
On the downside, losing $63,100 would likely expose the recent low around $62,770.
Why Markets Are Rallying Today
Global markets rallied after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a potential agreement with Iran could be be announced as soon as tomorrow. According to Bessent, the deal could include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing one of the biggest geopolitical risks facing global markets.
The headlines triggered a broad risk-on move. Oil prices fell sharply as traders removed much of the geopolitical risk premium, helping improve inflation expectations and lifting investor confidence.
Wall Street responded immediately. The Nasdaq gained 1.54%, the Dow Jones climbed 1.16%, and the S&P 500 advanced 0.91% to fresh all-time highs. Small-cap stocks also joined the rally, with the Russell 2000 rising 0.67%, while the VIX remained subdued near 16, reflecting improving market confidence.
Although markets are pricing in a more constructive outcome, traders will continue watching for confirmation that negotiations produce an official agreement rather than another extension.
Can Oil Break Below $75?
WTI crude continues to weaken as easing Middle East tensions remove the geopolitical premium from prices. On the 4-hour chart, price has broken below the important $80.63 support level, giving sellers control of the short-term trend.
The next major downside target sits near $75.31, while any recovery would first need to reclaim $83.19, followed by $85.89.
As long as oil remains below $80.63, the path of least resistance remains lower.
Silver continues recovering after defending the $55.63 support zone and is now testing the important $59.36 resistance level.
A sustained move above $59.36 would expose the next upside target near $63.05, while $58.21 remains the first level of support on any pullback.
The next few sessions will determine whether silver has enough momentum to break out of its recent range.
Tech Stocks Are Leading the Rally Again
QQQ has broken above the important $710.16 resistance, confirming buyers remain firmly in control. The next upside target sits near $736.80, while $710.16 now becomes the key support level to watch.
The move reflects growing optimism as investors position ahead of another busy week of technology earnings.
The S&P 500 Keeps Printing New Highs
The broader market remains firmly in an uptrend.SPY has reclaimed $757.35 and continues pushing toward fresh all-time highs. The next upside target sits near $764.53, followed by $785.96 if bullish momentum continues.
As long as the index remains above $757.35, buyers remain in firm control.
Fear Is Slowly Fading
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has improved to 37 (Fear) from 35 yesterday, reflecting gradually improving investor confidence as geopolitical tensions ease and equities continue making new highs.
Despite the improvement, sentiment remains in fear territory, suggesting traders are still approaching the market cautiously ahead of this week’s major earnings releases and economic data.
Short Sellers Get Squeezed Again
The crypto market recorded approximately $202.5 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours. Short positions accounted for $146.7 million, while long liquidations totaled $55.8 million, highlighting another short squeeze as Bitcoin recovered.
Ethereum Finally Breaking Out?
ETH continues trading within a broad consolidation range after successfully defending $1,838 support.
The next key resistance sits at $1,888, followed by $1,936. A breakout above these levels would strengthen bullish momentum and improve the short-term outlook.
However, losing $1,838 would shift momentum back in favor of sellers.
PUMP Continues to Outperform
It remains one of today’s strongest-performing altcoins. The token has reclaimed $0.00224, putting the next upside target near $0.00272.
As long as $0.00178 continues acting as support, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
Can SpaceX Live Up to the Hype?
SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a publicly traded company after today’s closing bell.
Wall Street Expectations
- Revenue: $6.8 billion
- EPS: -$0.26
Investors will focus on Starlink growth, AI infrastructure spending, margins, and management’s long-term outlook.
Technically, SPCX has rallied more than 17% over the past two sessions and continues trading above the 25 EMA ($114.95), 50 EMA ($111.85), and 100 EMA ($110.39) on the 1-hour chart, keeping short-term momentum bullish.
A strong earnings report could extend the rally further, while disappointing guidance may trigger profit-taking after the recent advance.
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