BITCOIN HOLDS ABOVE $61K AS INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND RETURNS
The second half of July is off to a constructive start for the crypto market. While U.S. equity markets are closed today in observance of Independence Day, Bitcoin continues trading above $61K, holding onto this week’s gains as early signs of institutional demand begin to reappear.
After weeks dominated by ETF outflows and cautious sentiment, investors are finally seeing several encouraging signals. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to net inflows, U.S. selling pressure appears to be easing, and overall market structure continues to improve.
With traditional financial markets closed until Monday, crypto will now be the first asset class to react to any major geopolitical or macroeconomic developments over the holiday weekend.
INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND SHOWS EARLY SIGNS OF RETURNING
After 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs finally returned to positive territory. Yesterday, the funds recorded $221.7 million in net inflows, ending the longest streak of institutional selling seen in weeks. The improvement wasn’t limited to ETF flows.
The Coinbase Premium Index has also been steadily recovering. While it remains slightly below zero, the discount has narrowed considerably, suggesting selling pressure from U.S.-based investors is beginning to fade.
ETF flows remain one of the clearest indicators of institutional participation. Although one day of inflows doesn’t confirm a new trend, ending a prolonged outflow streak while Coinbase demand simultaneously improves provides the strongest indication yet that institutional sentiment is stabilizing.
MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS CAUTIOUS
Despite Bitcoin’s recovery, overall market sentiment has yet to fully recover. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 23, keeping the market firmly in Fear territory. That’s an improvement from last week’s Extreme Fear reading, but investors remain cautious following the recent correction.
Historically, sentiment tends to recover more slowly than price. Markets often begin advancing while investors remain skeptical, only turning optimistic after the recovery has already been underway for some time. For now, fear continues to dominate positioning even as technical conditions improve.
CAN BITCOIN CLEAR THE NEXT RESISTANCE?
BTC continues consolidating just below $62K, extending the recovery that began earlier this week. The market has now reclaimed both its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, improving short-term market structure.
It is currently testing the important $62.3K resistance. A decisive breakout above this level would expose the next major upside target near $64.8K, followed by $67.2K. If momentum fades, the first support sits around $60.1K-$60.3K, where the 50-day moving average and previous breakout zone converge. As long as Bitcoin holds above this region, the broader recovery remains intact.
THE LIQUIDITY LANDSCAPE HAS CHANGED
Bitcoin’s move above $62K successfully swept one of the largest clusters of short liquidity that had built up over recent sessions. With those positions now cleared, the market’s liquidity profile has shifted.
The largest remaining liquidity cluster now sits around the $60K-$60.5K region. If Bitcoin continues higher, fresh buying, not short liquidations will likely be required to sustain the rally. Conversely, any pullback toward $60K could attract price as liquidity becomes the next major magnet.
MEME COINS TAKE THE LEAD
Risk appetite continues improving across the crypto market. Among all major sectors, meme coins have emerged as the strongest performers, outperforming AI, DeFi, Layer 1s, Layer 2s and Gaming over the latest session.
The rotation suggests traders are becoming increasingly comfortable moving further out on the risk curve after Bitcoin established support above $60K. While this alone doesn’t confirm the start of a broader altcoin season, it does indicate improving confidence across the market.
TOKENS TO WATCH
PIPPIN is one of today’s standout performers, gaining roughly 15% as capital continues flowing into meme coins. The token has broken above both its 100-period and 200-period moving averages while reclaiming the important $0.0177 breakout level.
The next major resistance sits near $0.0246. If buyers successfully break above that level, momentum could accelerate further. Should the rally cool, the $0.0177-$0.0175 area becomes the first support zone to monitor.
MELANIA is also participating in today’s meme coin rally. However, despite the recent recovery, the token remains approximately 95% below its all-time high, meaning the longer-term trend is still bearish. For now, this should be viewed primarily as a short-term momentum trade rather than a confirmed long-term reversal.
Price has reclaimed both its 100-period and 200-period moving averages and is now testing resistance around $0.0867. A breakout would expose $0.0995, followed by $0.1133. Failure to break resistance could see a healthy pullback toward the $0.080-$0.077 support region.
WORLDCOIN LEADS THE AI RECOVERY
AI tokens also performed well, with WLD leading the sector higher. The token has rebounded strongly from its recent lows and is now challenging its 50-period moving average.The key area to watch is the $0.42–$0.43 resistance zone.
A successful breakout would target $0.50, followed by $0.58. If rejected, support remains around $0.36.
ETHEREUM CONTINUES TO RECOVER
After reclaiming both its 50-period and 100-period moving averages, ETH is now approaching the next key resistance near $1,740.
A sustained breakout above $1,741 would improve market structure further and open the door toward $1,825. On the downside, the $1,656-$1,660 region becomes the first major support. As long as that level holds, the current recovery remains intact.
PREPARE FOR THE WEEKEND
With U.S. financial markets closed, cryptocurrency will be the only major asset class trading continuously over the holiday weekend. That means if any significant geopolitical headline emerges, crypto will be the first market forced to price it in.
Weekend trading is often accompanied by thinner liquidity and reduced institutional participation, conditions that can amplify volatility.
Without any major negative developments, stronger institutional flows and technicals could drive the recovery higher. Risk management will remain especially important until traditional financial markets reopen on Monday.
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