The Most Important FOMC Meeting of 2026 Is Here
Investors were already preparing for today’s interest rate decision and Microsoft’s and Meta’s earnings, but geopolitical tensions have quickly become the dominant market driver.
Risk assets came under pressure after Trump announced that the United States would respond militarily following Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on U.S. targets in Jordan. The combination of rising geopolitical uncertainty, today’s FOMC decision, and Big Tech earnings has created one of the most event-driven trading sessions of 2026.
Markets Shift to Risk-Off Mode
Geopolitical tensions escalated overnight after Trump confirmed that the United States would retaliate following Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on U.S. military targets in Jordan.
The developments quickly shifted investor attention away from earnings and toward geopolitical risk.
Oil Prices Surge on Supply Concerns
WTI crude rallied more than 8% intraday, climbing from yesterday’s low near $77.80 to around $85 per barrel, representing an almost 10% recovery.
As long as geopolitical tensions remain elevated, oil is expected to remain one of the most reactive assets in global markets.
All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting today, with markets awaiting both the interest rate decision and Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC press conference as Federal Reserve Chair.
Although investors broadly expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, the policy statement and Warsh’s comments will likely shape expectations for inflation, economic growth, and the path of monetary policy over the coming months.
With markets already under pressure from geopolitical developments, any surprise from the Federal Reserve could significantly amplify volatility across equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies.
Markets Continue to Price a Hold
Prediction markets continue to indicate that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged.
According to Polymarket, there is currently a 73.4% probability of no rate change, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 26.7%. Markets continue to assign virtually no probability to either a larger hike or a rate cut.
While today’s decision appears largely priced in, Kevin Warsh’s guidance is expected to have a much greater impact on market direction than the policy announcement itself.
Microsoft’s and Meta’s Earnings Take Center Stage
Following the Federal Reserve decision, attention will quickly shift to earnings from Microsoft and Meta, both scheduled to report after today’s market close.
| Company | Expected EPS | Expected Revenue | What Investors Are Watching |
| Microsoft | $4.24 | $87.6B | Azure cloud growth, Copilot adoption, AI infrastructure spending, and forward guidance |
| Meta | $7.22 | $60.2B | Advertising revenue, AI investment, operating margins, and AI CapEx guidance |
Rather than simply focusing on earnings beats, investors will be looking for updates on AI spending, capital expenditure plans, and management guidance to determine whether the AI trade can regain momentum.
Technology stocks remain under pressure as investors reduce exposure ahead of today’s major catalysts. The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) failed to reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 675.41 and is now trading just above key support around 668.95 while remaining below its 25-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages.
If support fails, the next downside targets sit near 662.49, followed by 655.25. For buyers to regain control, QQQ must first reclaim 675.41, opening the door toward 679.41 and 682.64.
Despite rising geopolitical tensions, gold has retreated from recent highs and is now approaching an important technical support level as traders wait for today’s Federal Reserve decision.
Gold currently trades around 4,013, remaining below its 25-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages. The key support sits near 3,988. Holding this level could allow a recovery toward 4,050, 4,073, and 4,162.
Failure to hold support would increase the risk of a deeper correction despite the current geopolitical backdrop.
Crypto Leverage Continues to Unwind
Crypto markets remain cautious ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. More than $331.40 million in leveraged positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, affecting approximately 96,677 traders.
Long liquidations totaled $222.79 million, while short liquidations reached $108.61 million. Ethereum led the liquidations with $64.51 million, followed by Bitcoin with $40.41 million.
The continued reduction in leverage highlights the market’s cautious positioning ahead of today’s major catalysts.
Fear Continues to Dominate Market Sentiment
The CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 35 (Fear). Although unchanged from yesterday, the reading remains well below last week’s Neutral level of 40, highlighting that traders continue to take a defensive approach.
The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, today’s Federal Reserve decision, and Microsoft’s and Meta’s earnings has significantly reduced investors’ willingness to take additional risk.
BTC continues to consolidate around $64,000 as traders wait for today’s Federal Reserve decision before committing to larger positions. The asset remains trapped between important technical levels. A recovery above $64,841 would improve short-term momentum and expose $65,072, followed by $66,727.
If sellers regain control, immediate support sits around $63,762, with the next major demand zone near $62,489. Today’s FOMC decision is likely to determine Bitcoin’s next major move.
The latest CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows Bitcoin positioned between two major liquidity clusters. The largest concentration of short liquidity sits between $64,800 and $65,200, making this the primary upside target if buyers regain momentum.
Below current prices, liquidity remains concentrated around $63,200–$63,500, with another major cluster extending toward $62,400–$62,800. Whichever liquidity zone is reached first following today’s FOMC decision could accelerate Bitcoin’s next move through a wave of forced liquidations.
Ethereum continues to trade under pressure as investors reduce exposure ahead of today’s macro events.
Trading around $1,891, Ethereum remains below its 25-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages, confirming that sellers continue to control short-term momentum.
A recovery above the moving-average cluster between $1,905 and $1,911 would improve the outlook and expose $1,971. On the downside, support remains near $1,880, followed by the major demand zone around $1,846.
Altcoins in Focus
UNI continues to outperform much of the DeFi sector and is now testing the important $4.09 resistance level.
The token remains above all three major moving averages, confirming that the broader trend remains constructive. A breakout above $4.09 could open the door toward $4.88, while failure at resistance could lead to a healthy pullback toward $3.61.
HYPE has entered one of its most important technical zones after several days of sustained selling. The token is currently testing the $54–56 support region while trading below its 25-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages.
If support breaks, the next downside target sits around $46.52. However, if buyers defend the current support zone, HYPE could recover toward $57.40, followed by $63.04 and $64.17, where the next major resistance begins.
What to Watch Today
Today’s session brings together three major market catalysts that could define the direction of risk assets over the coming days.
Markets will first react to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC press conference, before shifting their focus to Microsoft’s and Meta’s earnings after the market closes.
At the same time, traders will continue monitoring developments in the Middle East, as any further escalation following Trump’s announcement could drive another sharp move in oil, equities, cryptocurrencies, and safe-haven assets.
Trade the Markets That Matter
Today’s session has the potential to become one of the most volatile trading days of 2026. With the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and Big Tech earnings all converging within a matter of hours, opportunities are likely to emerge across indices, commodities, stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
Stay disciplined, manage your risk, and trade the world’s biggest market events with Bitfunded without risking your own capital.
The Bitfunded Team