CAN BITCOIN HOLD $78K AS PCE SETS UP A VOLATILE NVIDIA SESSION
The market has already delivered the first volatility shock of the day. PCE came in slightly hotter than expected, GDP held at 1.5%, Bitcoin briefly lost $78K before reclaiming it, and U.S. equities are still trying to find direction. Now the biggest test comes after the close: Nvidia earnings.
With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, growth holding at a moderate pace and Nvidia carrying enormous expectations into its report, this could be one of the more volatile sessions of the week.
PCE IS HOTTER, BUT BTC IS HOLDING THE LINE
The July data gave markets a mixed signal. Headline PCE came in at 3.7% YoY vs. 3.6% expected, while core PCE came in at 3.3% YoY, in line with expectations. Headline PCE was also +0.2% MoM vs. +0.1% expected.
At the same time, Q2 GDP came in at +1.5% annualized, matching expectations. So inflation isn’t giving the Fed much room to relax, but growth isn’t exactly screaming strength either.
The initial reaction was volatile. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can hold that reclaim and build strength into Nvidia’s earnings.
EQUITIES ARE STILL TRYING TO CATCH UP
The rotation between crypto and stocks remains visible.
S&P 500 futures pushed toward 7,700 after the data before giving some of the move back, while the broader equity market is still sitting below recent highs. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is showing more immediate strength after defending $78K.
That divergence matters.
If BTC continues to hold its post-data reclaim while equities stabilize, we could see some of that strength rotate back into tech ahead of Nvidia.
SPY HAS A CLEAR LEVEL TO RECLAIM
SPY is trading around $766, consolidating after its recent push higher. The key area is $771-$774. A clean reclaim would put $780 back in focus.
On the downside, $763 is the first level to watch, followed by $758 and then $754. For now, it is holding above its key support zone, but it needs to reclaim the upper range to show that buyers are taking control again.
QQQ NEEDS TO RECLAIM $718
QQQ is around $710, a move back above $718 would improve the short-term structure and bring the $737 area into focus. If buyers fail to defend the current range, $707 becomes the first support, followed by $698.
This is why Nvidia matters so much today: QQQ needs technology leadership to return, and Nvidia is the biggest test of that trade.
NVIDIA: THE BIG TEST FOR TECH
Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 FY2027 earnings after the close today.
Expectations are enormous:
- Revenue: $91.9-$92.2B
- Adjusted EPS: $2.08-$2.09
- Data Center revenue: $85.4-$85.7B
- Non-GAAP gross margin: 75%
- Q3 revenue expectations: $103-$104B+
- Implied post-earnings move: roughly 6%
The headline numbers matter, but the bigger question is whether Nvidia can beat and raise.
Markets will be watching the Blackwell ramp, AI infrastructure demand, hyperscaler capex, margins, China exposure and forward guidance. A strong report with stronger guidance could give the entire tech complex a fresh catalyst. An inline result may not be enough.
The expectations bar is already extremely high.
Currently trading around $213.83 ahead of earnings, sitting just below the $214.96 level on the chart. The first upside hurdle is $219.39, followed by $222.13 and $225.71. If buyers can reclaim $219.39 and hold it, the chart opens up toward the recent highs around $228.
On the downside, $211.38 is the first support, while $208.17 is the key level to hold. A break below $208.17 would weaken the setup and bring the $200 area back into focus.
OIL IS WATCHING HORMUZ
CL is now trading around the $81-82 area, with the market focused on developments between Iran and Oman around a potential temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposed framework includes a temporary commercial shipping route, demining work and further technical negotiations around navigation and security services. This is not a full reopening of Hormuz yet, but a workable corridor could reduce supply disruption risks, shipping costs and the war-risk premium embedded in crude.
That makes the next developments important not only for oil, but also for the inflation story.
Technically, crude is trying to stabilize after its recent decline. The key near-term question is whether buyers can reclaim $82.
GOLD PULLS BACK BELOW $4,623 AFTER PCE
Gold is trading around $4,610 after losing the $4,623 level following the PCE release. The immediate resistance sits at $4,624, followed by $4,637 and $4,647. A reclaim of that zone would bring $4,692 back into focus. On the downside, $4,603 is the key support, with $4,582 below it.
CRYPTO: BTC IS DEFENDING $78K
Bitcoin’s reaction to PCE is the setup to watch. It initially broke below $78K, but buyers stepped in and reclaimed the level. That makes $78K the immediate line in the sand.
If BTC holds above it and momentum returns, the market can start looking back toward $80K and the recent high around $81.3K. If $78K fails again, the reaction becomes much less constructive. For now, the important thing isn’t chasing the first move.
It’s watching whether buyers can hold the reclaim.
ALTCOINS ARE SETTING UP FOR ROTATION
ETH is still consolidating below $2,475–$2,490, with the chart showing that zone as the immediate resistance. A clean reclaim would put $2,535 back in play, while losing $2,443 would open the door toward $2,415 and the larger $2,380 support zone.
For now, ETH needs to turn the $2,475 area back into support before the next leg higher looks convincing.
HYPE remains one of the more interesting higher-beta setups. It is holding around $82.90 after the recent breakout, but the chart is also showing a potential retest toward $76.48 and, if that fails, the $67.94 area. If buyers defend the breakout structure, the upside target is around $100.98. This is one to watch if liquidity continues rotating into higher-beta crypto.
LIT has also made a strong move but is now pulling back, with the key retracement levels sitting around $2.88 and $2.67. If the pullback holds above that zone, the chart points toward $4.20 first and potentially $4.68 after that. The setup is attractive, but chasing the vertical move is not the same as waiting for the retest.
PUMP is holding its breakout structure around $0.00477. The first support sits around $0.00462, with the broader breakout zone below that. If buyers maintain the structure, the next upside levels are around $0.00518 and $0.00548. This remains a high-beta trade, so volatility around these levels should be expected.
WHAT MATTERS FROM HERE
The market now has two major catalysts behind it and one massive catalyst still ahead.
Can BTC reclaim $78K, can QQQ reclaim $718, and can Nvidia deliver enough growth and guidance to bring buyers back into tech?
Those three reactions will tell us far more than the initial PCE volatility.
STAY AHEAD OF THE VOLATILITY
Today’s market is moving quickly between macro data, rates, commodities, crypto and Nvidia expectations.
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