RISK APPETITE FADES AS TRUMP WARNS IRAN
Markets are back under pressure after Trump issued a fresh warning to Iran, threatening direct retaliation against critical infrastructure if Iranian forces target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump stated that any attack by Iran on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz would be met with U.S. strikes on Iranian bridges or power plants, including targets near Tehran. The comments have renewed concerns that the conflict could broaden further, increasing the risk of disruptions to one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Adding to the uncertainty, investors are also preparing for earnings from Tesla and Alphabet, two of the most influential technology companies in the market. Their results are expected to set the tone for the broader technology sector and could influence market direction for the remainder of the week.
For now, markets are balancing geopolitical headlines against corporate earnings, with both likely to determine the next major move across global assets.
OIL EXTENDS ITS RALLY
Crude oil continues to trade near recent highs as geopolitical tensions keep a risk premium embedded in energy markets.
On the 1-hour chart, WTI Crude is trading around $86.51, comfortably above both its 25 MA ($85.67) and 50 MA ($84.10), confirming that short-term momentum remains firmly in favor of buyers.
Price recently rejected the $88.65 resistance level and is now consolidating above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($86.52). Holding this level would keep the current uptrend intact, while a breakout above $88.65 could expose the next major resistance near $93.19.
On the downside, $85.19 and $84.12 remain the first support levels should buying momentum fade. As long as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East persists, oil is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
MARKETS PRICE IN A HIGHER CHANCE OF FED RATE HIKES
Higher oil prices are also beginning to influence interest rate expectations. According to Polymarket, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 has surged to 63%, up 11 percentage points over the past few days.
The move reflects growing concerns that sustained increases in energy prices could feed through into inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer or potentially tighten policy again next year.
SILVER EXTENDS ITS BREAKOUT
Silver continues outperforming the precious metals sector, gaining nearly 8.7% over the past 72 hours. On the 4-hour chart, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $60.31, holding above both its 25 MA ($57.48) and 50 MA ($59.17).
The next resistance sits near $62.99, followed by $67.22, while $59.31 now becomes the first major support. Growing geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation expectations continue supporting demand for precious metals.
U.S. EQUITIES TURN CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF BIG TECH EARNINGS
U.S. equities are trading under pressure as investors reduce risk exposure ahead of one of the biggest earnings sessions of the week. With geopolitical risks rising and earnings season accelerating, investors are taking a more cautious approach heading into the market close.
EARNINGS PREVIEW: TESLA AND ALPHABET
Tesla enters earnings after reporting 480,126 vehicle deliveries, significantly above market expectations.
Wall Street Expectations
- Revenue: $25.9B–$26.4B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.52–$0.53
Investors will focus on automotive margins, energy storage growth, Robotaxi progress, Optimus, Full Self-Driving monetization, and management’s AI strategy. On the daily chart, TSLA is trading around $377.22, below both its 25 MA ($396.95) and 50 MA ($386.03) while testing a major support zone near $370-$375.
A positive earnings surprise could send shares back toward the 50 MA, 25 MA, and eventually $417.18. However, losing the current support could expose the next downside target near $339.27.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is expected to deliver another strong quarter, driven by AI demand and continued Cloud expansion.
Wall Street Expectations
- Revenue: $116B–$117B
- EPS: $2.87–$2.90
Investors will closely monitor Google Cloud growth, Gemini adoption, AI monetization, and capital spending. Together, Tesla and Alphabet’s results are expected to provide one of the clearest indications yet of how the AI investment cycle is evolving across corporate America.
CRYPTO TRADES LOWER AS RISK APPETITE FADES
The cryptocurrency market has turned lower as investors reduce exposure following the latest geopolitical developments. Bitcoin is down roughly 1.7%, while Ethereum has slipped modestly. Selling pressure has spread across most major altcoins, including BNB, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Hyperliquid.
Despite the pullback, declines remain relatively contained, suggesting the market is experiencing profit-taking rather than panic selling.
BITCOIN TESTS KEY SUPPORT
BTC is consolidating after last week’s rally as traders reduce exposure amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. On the 1-hour chart, BTC is trading around $65,802, holding above the important $65,002 support while trading near its 10 MA ($65,867).
The next resistance sits near the 25 MA ($66,159), followed by the recent swing high around $66,836. If Bitcoin holds above current support, the broader bullish structure remains intact. However, a break below $65,002 could expose $64,894 and $64,226.
ETHEREUM HOLDS ABOVE KEY SUPPORT
ETH continues consolidating after recovering from July’s lows. On the daily chart, ETH is trading around $1,936, comfortably above both its 25 MA ($1,783) and 50 MA ($1,777).
The next resistance sits near $2,148, followed by $2,462, while the 200 MA ($2,783) remains the longer-term objective. As long as ETH remains above its reclaimed moving averages, the current recovery remains technically constructive.
ALTCOIN WATCH
ETHFI SHOWS STRENGTH
Ethereum ecosystem tokens continue outperforming despite broader market weakness. ETHFI has reclaimed both its 25 MA ($0.404) and 50 MA ($0.370) while approaching the important $0.486 resistance.
A breakout above this level could trigger another leg higher toward $0.579.
ENA is beginning to recover after reclaiming both its 25 MA ($0.0797) and 50 MA ($0.0834). The next resistance sits near $0.0894, followed by the 100 MA ($0.0951).
A successful breakout above these levels would strengthen the bullish recovery.
TRADE GLOBAL MARKETS WITH BITFUNDED
Today’s session is another reminder that markets can change quickly when macro events and earnings collide.
Geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and changing interest rate expectations are all shaping investor sentiment, while major earnings from Tesla and Alphabet could determine the next move across equities and cryptocurrencies.
With Bitfunded, you can trade Crypto, Commodities, Indices, and Stocks from a single funded account, allowing you to capitalize on opportunities across global markets without risking your own capital.
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