NEW WEEK, SAME PROBLEM
Optimism around a potential 60-day ceasefire extension is fading. Markets spent much of last week pricing in the possibility of a breakthrough between the US and Iran, helping support risk assets and pushing oil lower. But as the new week begins, that optimism is quickly disappearing.
Trump continues insisting that Iran wants a deal and remains confident negotiations will ultimately succeed. However, it has now been roughly 55 days since the original ceasefire announcement, and a final agreement still remains unsigned.
Instead, the situation escalated again over the weekend. The US military confirmed it conducted strikes on Iranian targets in Goruk and Qeshm Island after Iran allegedly shot down a US drone operating over international waters.
The result has been straightforward. Oil is pushing higher, crypto is moving lower as traders are being forced to price uncertainty back into the market as negotiations continue dragging on without a clear resolution.
MARKETS ARE REPRICING GEOPOLITICAL RISK
Following the latest escalation, crude oil climbed nearly 5%, rising from a low of $86 to above $91 as traders began pricing in renewed supply disruption risks across the Middle East.
Meanwhile, crypto markets are starting the week under pressure.
- Bitcoin fell back below $73K
- Ethereum slipped below the key $2,000 level
- Solana weakened nearly 2% over the last 24 hours
The move reinforces the current market dynamic: whenever negotiations appear to break down, capital immediately rotates toward energy while risk assets come under pressure.
For now, oil remains one of the most important indicators to watch. As long as crude continues pushing higher, it becomes increasingly difficult for crypto to sustain meaningful upside momentum.
LONG LIQUIDATIONS DOMINATE THE SELL-OFF
The latest sell-off has triggered another wave of forced liquidations. Over the last 24 hours, more than $307 million worth of positions have been liquidated, with $183 million coming from longs compared to $124 million from shorts. The majority of the damage has been concentrated on bullish positioning, highlighting how aggressively traders were leaning risk-on after last week’s ceasefire optimism.
BITCOIN IS TESTING THE LEVEL THAT MATTERS
The current move is significant because BTC is once again testing a support zone that has repeatedly acted as a major pivot throughout this cycle.
The $73K area previously served as resistance during 2024, support earlier this year and more recently as the foundation for the latest recovery attempt. If buyers successfully defend the level, Bitcoin could stabilize and attempt another move toward the upper end of the range.
However, a confirmed breakdown would increase the risk of a deeper correction as geopolitical uncertainty continues weighing on risk assets.
ETHEREUM IS BREAKING DOWN AGAIN
ETH is once again coming under pressure after failing to reclaim the key $2,050-$2,100 resistance region. The next major support sits near $1,765. If that level fails to hold, the next significant downside target comes in around $1,418.
The weakness is also being reflected in fundamentals.Ethereum chain revenue has collapsed from roughly $1.5 billion per month at the 2021 cycle peak to just $5 million today, highlighting how dramatically on-chain activity and fee generation have slowed compared to previous bull market conditions.
For now, both the technical structure and network fundamentals remain under pressure.
HYPERLIQUID ENTERS THE TOP 10
HYPE continues to be one of the strongest assets in crypto, recently printing fresh all-time highs. The token has now overtaken DOGE by market capitalization, becoming the 9th-largest cryptocurrency in the market.
Sentiment around the asset remains extremely strong, with Polymarket currently assigning roughly a 55% probability that HYPE reaches $100 before year-end.
From a technical perspective, HYPE remains in a strong uptrend despite the recent pullback.
However, if geopolitical tensions continue escalating and risk assets remain under pressure, traders will be watching the golden pocket support zone closely (60-63).
BNB IS SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH
BNB continues to outperform much of the market after Binance announced plans to launch US stock trading for non-US users. The development could significantly expand Binance’s reach beyond crypto markets and has helped support relative strength in BNB despite broader weakness across digital assets.
Price is now testing the key $685 support region after rejecting from the $740 area. If it can hold above $685 and broader market sentiment improves, the current structure favors another attempt higher toward recent highs.
CHAINLINK IS APPROACHING A DECISION POINT
LINK is currently testing the lower boundary of its multi-month trading channel, making the current area one of the most important technical levels on the chart.
Price continues holding above rising trendline support near the $8.80-$9.00 region, but momentum has weakened. If sentiment continues deteriorating and risk assets remain under pressure, a breakdown below channel support could open the door for a move toward lower levels.
However, if peace talks regain momentum and broader market conditions stabilize, LINK remains well-positioned for a recovery back toward the upper end of the range.
WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK
Macro and Markets
- Powell Speech (Today): One of Powell’s final appearances as Fed Chair
- JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday)
- May Jobs Report (Friday): The biggest event of the week
- 7 Fed Speaker Events Throughout The Week
Crypto and Regulation
- CLARITY Act Watch 4th July: Questions remain around the bill’s path after reported resistance from major banks and suggestions that non-essential legislation could face delays
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