FOMC DAY: DON’T JUST WATCH THE RATE DECISION
The Federal Reserve announces its latest policy decision today but with markets pricing a 99.4% chance of no rate change, the decision itself is unlikely to surprise anyone. The real focus will be the updated economic projections and the Fed Chair’s message.
The real event begins 30 minutes later when Kevin Warsh steps up for his first-ever FOMC press conference as Fed Chair. The debate has quietly shifted over the last few months.
A few months ago, traders were asking: How many cuts will we get?
Today the question is: Will we get any cuts at all?
Inflation has climbed back above 4%, several Fed officials have warned that additional tightening may be necessary, and Polymarket traders now assign roughly a 36% probability of a rate hike by December.
Markets aren’t focused on today’s decision. They’re focused on what comes next.
THE BULLISH CASE FOR FOMC
Not everyone expects a hawkish surprise. There is a growing camp that believes today’s meeting could actually be bullish for risk assets. The argument is straightforward: This is Warsh’s first FOMC meeting.
Oil prices have fallen sharply as geopolitical tensions ease. Markets have already repriced toward a higher-for-longer environment. Warsh has previously indicated he focuses more on underlying inflation than temporary headline spikes.
If Warsh pushes back against the market’s increasingly hawkish expectations, risk assets could react positively. Historically, however, first meetings under new Fed Chairs have been rough.
Seven of the last eight first FOMC meetings under a new Chair closed red for markets. Only Paul Volcker avoided that pattern.
HOW TRADERS ARE POSITIONED
Positioning heading into today’s announcement is cautious. Across crypto derivatives, roughly $24.4 billion of short volume has traded over the last 24 hours compared to $22.8 billion of long volume.
Retail traders remain net long across major exchanges. Whales and smart money are less convinced. Several positioning metrics across Binance, OKX, and Bybit continue to show neutral-to-bearish sentiment among larger participants. That creates an interesting setup.
If Warsh sounds less hawkish than expected, there is enough short exposure in the market to fuel another squeeze higher.
THE MARKET IS PRICING PEACE
While traders focus on the Fed, the biggest geopolitical story continues to be the rapidly advancing U.S.-Iran negotiations. G7 nations have now publicly expressed support for the proposed agreement and urged its successful implementation.
At the same time, Bloomberg has reportedly published details from the Memorandum of Understanding that could fundamentally reshape the Middle East risk landscape.
The most important phrase may be two simple words: “All Fronts”
The reported agreement calls for an immediate and final end to the war on all fronts between Tehran, Washington, and their allies. If implemented, the agreement would end hostilities across multiple regional battlefronts, remove the U.S. naval blockade, allow Iranian oil exports to resume, release frozen Iranian funds, provide sanctions relief, create a 60-day framework for a final agreement and lock the final deal into a UN Security Council resolution.
BITCOIN: STUCK BETWEEN SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
BTC enters today’s FOMC meeting at one of the most important technical levels of the cycle. On the weekly timeframe, it is currently consolidating between its:
- 200-week EMA near $69K
- 200-week MA near $62K
Bulls want to see Bitcoin reclaim and close back above the 200-week EMA. Doing so would strengthen the argument that the recent correction has already found its bottom and shift focus back toward the $69K-$71K resistance zone. On the downside, the 200-week MA remains critical support.
If that level is lost, lower levels quickly come back into play. For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between support and resistance while waiting for its next major catalyst.
Today’s FOMC may provide it.
ALTCOIN WATCH
PENDLE continues to outperform during the recent recovery. It has reclaimed its 50-day moving average and is now pushing into the $1.48-$1.60 resistance zone, where the 200-day moving average sits.
A breakout above that region could open the door toward $1.90-$2.00. As long as PENDLE continues holding above the $1.37-$1.40 support zone, momentum remains constructive.
LDO is another token showing relative strength as capital rotates back into Ethereum-related plays. After taking support from recent lows near $0.25, price is attempting to reclaim the $0.30 level.
The next major hurdle sits near $0.33-$0.34, where both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages converge.
A reclaim of that zone would potentially open the door toward $0.38-$0.42.
While many altcoins are recovering, PUMP continues to struggle. Price has lost both major moving averages and recently failed to hold above the $0.00150 support zone. The recent rally attempt was rejected near resistance and sellers quickly regained control.
The next key support sits near $0.00137. Unless PUMP can reclaim $0.00151-$0.00157, the chart remains firmly in a downtrend.
OIL: WAITING FOR GENEVA
The market’s biggest reaction has been in energy. According to reports, the peace agreement would allow Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel exports, with sanctions waivers on oil sales taking effect upon signing. Restrictions on banking, transportation, and insurance would also be eased. More Iranian supply entering the market, combined with lower geopolitical risk, has increased expectations of improved global energy availability.
As a result, oil has come under pressure in recent sessions as traders increasingly price in a scenario where major Middle East supply disruptions become less likely. After falling more than 8% from recent highs, crude oil is finally attempting to stabilize. The market has aggressively removed the geopolitical premium that was built into prices during the recent conflict.
Technically, it is finding support in the $74-$76 region after the sharp sell-off. The first resistance sits near $77.2, followed by the larger $80 resistance zone.
The next major catalyst arrives on Friday. The Geneva meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives will likely determine whether markets continue pricing a successful agreement or begin rebuilding risk premium. If negotiations progress smoothly, oil could remain under pressure. If complications emerge, the rebound could be violent.
WHAT TO WATCH
👉 Fed Rate Decision (2:00 PM ET)
👉 Updated Dot Plot
👉 Kevin Warsh’s First FOMC Press Conference
👉 Market reaction to any changes in rate projections
👉 Oil around the $74-$76 support zone
👉 Bitcoin’s battle between the 200-week EMA and 200-week MA
👉 Whether altcoins continue showing relative strength after FOMC
The market already knows what the Fed is likely to do. What it doesn’t know is how Kevin Warsh plans to lead. At the same time, traders are increasingly pricing one of the largest geopolitical de-escalations in years as the U.S.-Iran agreement moves closer to implementation.
Those two stories are pulling markets in opposite directions.
- One is about liquidity
- The other is about risk
By the end of today, we’ll have a much better idea which one matters more.
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