CPI MET EXPECTATIONS BUT CAN PPI CONFIRM THE TREND?
U.S. markets received the inflation print they were looking for today, but the reaction has been far from uniform. While the equities are holding near their highs, gold is pushing higher and crypto is struggling to follow.
July CPI matched expectations across the board. Headline CPI came in at 3.4% YoY and +0.1% MoM, while core CPI came in at 2.5% YoY and +0.2% MoM.
The details were mixed. Energy prices fell 1.5% MoM, helped by a 2.9% decline in gasoline and a 1.7% drop in fuel oil. Food increased 0.1%, while food at home declined 0.1%.
Several core categories still showed upward pressure, including medical care (+0.4%), airline fares (+2.2%), communication (+0.6%) and used cars (+0.4%). Motor vehicle insurance declined 0.3%.
With PPI due tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, the market now has another inflation checkpoint before deciding whether today’s CPI relief can develop into a broader risk-on move.
RATE-HIKE ODDS CONTINUE TO FALL AFTER THE CPI PRINT
The in-line CPI number has further reduced expectations for a September rate hike.
Polymarket now shows a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, down from around 38% earlier today, with the probability briefly falling toward 31%.
The move suggests markets are becoming less concerned about an immediate tightening move, but tomorrow’s PPI will be important in determining whether that shift continues.
Markets are expecting headline PPI at +0.2% MoM, compared with -0.3% in June, while core PPI is expected at +0.3% MoM, up from +0.2%.
A softer reading would strengthen the argument that inflation is continuing to cool and could provide another boost to risk assets. A hotter print could quickly reverse today’s dovish interpretation and put renewed pressure on equities and crypto.
OIL IS HOLDING ABOVE $80 AS THE HORMUZ WAR RISK REMAINS
The inflation story cannot be separated from the geopolitical situation. The war is still ongoing, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk for energy markets.
President Trump said today that the U.S. has control over the Strait of Hormuz and intends to maintain its naval blockade, while Iran continues to face pressure surrounding the vital shipping route.
OIL IS HOLDING ABOVE $80 DESPITE THE PULLBACK
CL is trading around $82.13, after pulling back from the recent move toward $84.10 while continuing to hold above the key $80.89 support. The 25-period MA is around $82.65, with the 50MA near $82.28.
A break above $84.10 would put $87.30 back into focus. On the downside, losing $80.89 would expose the broader $77.69 support zone.
For now, oil is still holding above $80, meaning geopolitical risk remains embedded in the inflation outlook. Any renewed escalation around Hormuz could quickly push crude higher again.
GOLD CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGHER
Gold is continuing to benefit from the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns and changing rate expectations. Gold futures have surged toward $4,500/oz, putting them roughly 14% higher since July 17. Spot gold has lagged futures but is now approaching a major resistance zone.
XAU is trading around $4,426, with the recent high at $4,448.57. Price has reclaimed the $4,254 Fibonacci level and is now approaching $4,500 resistance. A sustained breakout above $4,500 would open the path toward $4,607, followed by $4,716. On the downside, $4,254 is the first major support, followed by the $4,145-$4,154 area.
With gold already extended from its July lows, $4,500 is the key confirmation level rather than a level to blindly chase.
EQUITIES ARE HOLDING THE RALLY BUT MOMENTUM HAS COOLED
U.S. equities pushed higher following the CPI release, but the early strength has faded toward breakeven in parts of the market. Investors remain cautious as they wait for PPI while geopolitical risk continues to hang over sentiment.
SPY is trading around 772.78, essentially flat, after testing the 777.98 resistance zone. Price remains above the 10-day MA at 770.85, keeping the short-term structure constructive. A clean break above 777.98 would bring the 802.83-808.70 zone into focus. If 770.85 fails, the next important supports are 759.07, 753.13 and 747.27.
Meanwhile, QQQ is trading around 724.44, up roughly 0.62%, and remains above its 10-day MA at 719.45. The key resistance is 729.29.
A breakout would put 765.10 and 773.55 into focus, while downside support sits at 701.93, followed by 693.48 and 685.03.
For both indices, the message is similar: the trend remains constructive, but resistance needs to break before the next major leg higher is confirmed.
SPCX AND NVDA ARE SHOWING WHERE MOMENTUM IS RETURNING
SPCX is trading around $139.19, up roughly 3%, after breaking sharply higher from the $110-$115 consolidation zone. Price is approaching $141.43 resistance while holding above the 25-period MA at $135.88 and 50-period MA at $127.32.
A break above $141.43 would put $159.61 and $163.90 into focus. Support sits around $132.85.
NVDA is trading around $223.63, up roughly 2.2%, after breaking out of its recent $217-$220 consolidation. Price has reclaimed both the 25-period MA at $219.25 and 50-period MA at $219.27. The immediate resistance is $225.14, with a breakout targeting $229.39 and $230.40.
The first downside supports are $222.13 and $220.88, with $216.62 marking the broader swing-low area.
CRYPTO IS GETTING HIT AS BTC FALLS BACK INTO LIQUIDATION ZONES
The clean CPI print has not translated into a sustained crypto risk-on move. Bitcoin is under pressure, while the liquidation map shows significant leveraged liquidity concentrated below the current price.
The key liquidation zone is roughly $62.5K-$63.3K. A continued decline into this area could trigger forced long liquidations and accelerate the downside. The immediate recovery level is around $64K-$64.5K. If BTC cannot reclaim that area and $63K breaks decisively, the $62.5K region becomes increasingly important.
ETH IS HOLDING THE RECOVERY BUT REMAINS BELOW KEY RESISTANCE
Currently trading around $1,891.50, up roughly 1.6%, holding around the $1,873.32 Fibonacci support and its 25-day MA near $1,893.56. The 50-day MA sits at $1,813.01.
The key resistance is $1,984.97. A breakout would put $2,096.61 and then $2,255.56 into focus. If $1,873.32 fails, $1,735.19 becomes the next major support.
ALTCOINS ARE SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH
Not every part of crypto is following Bitcoin lower. Several altcoins are showing stronger short-term momentum.
VIRTUAL IS REBOUNDING SHARPLY
Price is around $0.5918, up roughly 8%, after rebounding from $0.5164 and reclaiming the $0.5541 Fibonacci level.
The immediate resistance is $0.5918, followed by $0.6295 and $0.6383. Support sits around $0.5740 and $0.5541.
HYPE IS TRYING TO RECLAIM ITS SHORT-TERM TREND
Currently trading around $55.94, with price back above the 25-period MA at $54.84 and 50-period MA at $55.32.
The key resistance is $56.34. Above it, the next targets are $57.96, $60.56 and $61.37. Support sits around $53.74.
JTO IS EXTENDING ITS ALTCOIN RECOVERY
Price is around $0.5625, up roughly 4.9%, after reclaiming the $0.5338 Fibonacci level and moving above its 25-period MA at $0.5370 and 50-period MA at $0.5170.
The key resistance is $0.5772. A breakout would open $0.6339 and $0.6473, while $0.5338 remains the first major support.
The broader takeaway is that altcoin momentum is improving in pockets, but with BTC still under pressure, these moves need to prove they can hold rather than becoming short-lived relief rallies.
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