THE MARKET STILL ISN’T PRICING THE WAR
Despite another round of escalating tensions in the Middle East, U.S. markets finished yesterday firmly higher, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.3%, the Russell 2000 rising 1.2%, and the S&P 500 adding 0.8%. Today, futures were mixed as traders become more cautious heading into the weekend, but so far the market continues buying the “deal” narrative instead of pricing in a prolonged conflict.
That makes this weekend especially important. With traditional markets closed, any major geopolitical developments are likely to hit crypto first. While investors have largely ignored the war so far, the risk of unexpected headlines remains elevated.
STOCK SENTIMENT RETURNS TO NEUTRAL
Investor sentiment has continued improving despite the ongoing conflict. The CNN Fear and Greed Index has climbed to 47 (Neutral), marking the first move out of Fear territory in more than a month. Rather than fleeing risk assets, investors continue buying dips as confidence slowly returns.
The key question now is whether that optimism survives another weekend of geopolitical uncertainty.
THE WAR NARRATIVE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
The military situation remains tense. Iran continues threatening retaliation if its infrastructure is targeted again, warning that Israeli and Gulf energy infrastructure could become future targets. Iranian officials have also stated that previous strikes “will not go unanswered,” keeping uncertainty elevated heading into the weekend.
For now, however, financial markets remain remarkably resilient. Investors continue focusing on hopes that the conflict remains contained rather than pricing in a broader regional war. Whether that optimism survives the weekend will likely determine next week’s market direction.
THE FED TURNS MORE HAWKISH
The latest CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 64.3% probability of a rate hike by the September FOMC meeting, with markets increasingly pricing that the Federal Reserve will need to tighten policy further rather than begin easing.
Higher rates remain one of the biggest headwinds for both equities and crypto. While investors are currently focused on geopolitical headlines, expectations for tighter monetary policy could quickly become the next major market driver if inflation remains elevated.
SPY REMAINS NEAR ITS HIGHS
SPY has reclaimed both its 100 and 200 moving averages and is now testing the important $752.5 resistance level. A breakout above this area would strengthen the bullish structure and expose the next upside target near $765.
On the downside, the $742-$743 region remains the key support where buyers are expected to defend the trend.
META CONTINUES TO LEAD THE AI RACE
Meta announced it will begin producing its own Iris AI chip later this year while expanding its AI infrastructure to reduce reliance on Nvidia and AMD.
The stock continues reflecting that strength. META has reclaimed both its 50 and 100 moving averages and recently broke above the important $638 resistance. Price is now consolidating just below $683, with a breakout opening the door toward $727 and potentially $777.
ROBINHOOD CHAIN SEES EXPLOSIVE EARLY ADOPTION
HOOD continues benefiting from Robinhood Chain’s explosive early growth. The network has already processed 17M+ transactions, 350K addresses, $1B+ in DEX volume, and 150K daily active addresses, making it the second-most active EVM chain just over a week after launch.
The strong adoption continues supporting the bullish case for the ecosystem. Price recently rejected from the $119.7 resistance zone after a strong rally but continues holding above the key $111-$113 support area, where buyers have stepped in.
As long as price holds above $111, the current pullback looks like healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal. A break back above $120 would likely confirm bullish continuation and open the door toward the next upside target near $133.
If sellers gain control, the $106-$107 region becomes the first major support to watch, with the 200 MA near $102 acting as the final level defending the longer-term bullish structure.
CRYPTO WATCH
Unlike traditional markets, crypto never closes, making Bitcoin the first major asset to react whenever geopolitical headlines break. So far, it has handled the uncertainty remarkably well.
The latest liquidation heatmap shows Bitcoin sitting between two major liquidity clusters. A large concentration of short liquidity sits between $64.8K and $66K, while another major pool of long liquidity remains around $61.5K-$62K.
If tensions begin easing, a breakout above $64K could trigger a short squeeze toward the upper liquidity cluster. If the conflict escalates, price could quickly rotate back toward the lower liquidity pocket.
Ethereum has continued strengthening after successfully defending its June lows.
ETH has reclaimed both its 10 and 25 moving averages and is now approaching the important $1,840 resistance level. A breakout above this area would expose the 100 MA near $2,015, while the $1,695-$1,710 region remains the first major support.
STRONG ALTCOINS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM
ZEC remains one of the strongest charts in the market after reclaiming all of its key moving averages. Price is now testing the $505-$520 resistance zone, with a breakout potentially opening the door toward $540.
UNI has quietly built a strong recovery structure after reclaiming its 10, 25, and 100 moving averages. Price is now challenging the key $3.65 resistance, with further upside toward $4.29 if buyers maintain momentum.
WHAT TO WATCH
The biggest focus now shifts to the weekend:
- Will geopolitical tensions remain contained, or will new developments trigger another wave of volatility before traditional markets reopen?
- Can Bitcoin finally break above $64K and attack the next liquidity cluster near $65K-$66K?
Markets have remained remarkably resilient so far, but weekends have repeatedly been catalysts for unexpected geopolitical headlines. Staying disciplined and managing risk remains the priority.
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