CAN THE RISK-ON RALLY SURVIVE CPI AND GEOPOLITICAL RISK?
Markets are entering the new week with Bitcoin around $65K and the major U.S. indices near all-time highs, but the market is approaching a major decision point.
The biggest catalyst is U.S. inflation data, with July CPI due Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. After the weaker-than-expected July jobs report, expectations for a September Fed rate hike have already fallen sharply. That means the inflation data now has greater power to determine whether markets continue pricing a more patient Fed or reverse that move.
At the same time, U.S.- Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz remain a major risk. Any sustained disruption to oil transportation could push energy prices higher and complicate the inflation picture just as markets are looking for evidence of disinflation.
OIL COULD DRIVE INFLATION AS HORMUZ TENSIONS RISE
The U.S.- Iran situation is becoming increasingly important for markets. Reports indicate President Trump has privately floated the possibility of walking away from the Iran war without a nuclear deal if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiations have reportedly become more complicated, with Iran seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the removal of U.S. troops from the region and other concessions in exchange for reopening the waterway.
The probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a Hormuz agreement by the end of the month has reportedly fallen to around 30%.
More importantly for markets, shipping traffic through Hormuz has weakened further. According to Kpler, confirmed crossings fell from 15 on Friday to 11 on Saturday and just six on Sunday.
With roughly one-fifth of global crude oil normally passing through the Strait, continued disruption could quickly feed into crude prices and inflation expectations.
Crude is trading around $78.06. Price has recovered from the $74.72 support zone and is now around the short-term moving averages, with the 25-MA at $77.37, 50-MA at $77.90, and 100-MA at $81.38.
The immediate resistance is $78.79, followed by $82.42 and $86.60. Major resistance remains around $90.88. The key downside level is $74.72.
A sustained break above $82.42 would strengthen the bullish energy and inflation scenario. Failure around $78.79 keeps crude range-bound, while a loss of $74.72 would weaken the current recovery.
GOLD IS HOLDING ITS BREAKOUT
Currently trading around $4,359.94, well above the 25-MA at $4,326.86, 50-MA at $4,219.84, and 100-MA at $4,142.51.
The immediate resistance is $4,375.12. A clean 4H breakout and hold above that level would expose $4,480.58, followed by $4,577.22. The first important support is $4,288.10, followed by $4,162.03 and $4,078.86.
The structure remains bullish while gold holds above $4,288. A confirmed move above $4,375 would strengthen the continuation setup toward $4,480. A rejection followed by a loss of $4,288 would signal a deeper consolidation.
U.S. INDICES TEST THE RALLY
Indices enter the week close to their highs, although futures were trading lower today. The key question is whether the cash session can absorb that weakness or whether sellers gain more control.
SPY is trading around $774.96, with the 25-MA at $772.79. Price remains close to major resistance at $778.01.
A sustained break above $778.01 would expose $802.88 and $808.75. Support sits at $753.15, $747.28, and $738.92, with the broader demand zone around $728-$730.
Structure remains constructive while above $753-$747. A breakout above $778 would strengthen continuation. A sustained loss of $747 would weaken the setup.
QQQ is trading around $727.17, above the 25-MA at $721.64 and the key $710.16 level.
The immediate resistance is $728.89. Above that, the chart points toward $764.50 and $772.91. Support sits at $693.29, $684.88, and $672.92. A sustained break above $728.89 would strengthen the upside continuation setup.
STOCKS TO WATCH THIS WEEK
Strategy reportedly sold another 1,690 BTC worth approximately $108.6M last week, bringing reported sales over the past six weeks to 6,916 BTC, worth around $429.35M.
That makes MSTR particularly important to watch. Currently trading around $101.41.
The chart shows price above the 25-MA at $100.37, 50-MA at $97.91, and 100-MA at $96.27, keeping the short-term structure constructive. Resistance sits at $106.87, followed by $116.48. Support is around $99.14–$98.21, followed by $90.14 and $81.72.
MSTR needs to reclaim $106.87 for stronger upside confirmation. Holding the $98-$100 area keeps the recovery intact; losing that zone would weaken the setup.
Apple faces a margin-versus-demand decision as iPhone component costs rise. Reports indicate Apple may attempt to limit price increases for the iPhone 18 Pro despite sharply higher component costs, with memory prices becoming a major source of pressure.
The potential outcome is a trade-off between protecting demand through pricing restraint and accepting lower margins, or raising prices elsewhere to offset costs.
Currently trading around $313.28. Price is just above the 25-MA at $312.76 and 50-MA at $310.91, while the 100-MA sits at $319.73.
The key Fibonacci resistance levels are $317.36 and $322.65. Support is $310.82, followed by the larger base around $300.24. Holding above $310.82 keeps the current consolidation constructive.
CRYPTO SENTIMENT IS RECOVERING
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 40: Neutral
Sentiment has improved from:
- Last week: 35: Fear
- Last month: 31: Fear
The progression shows that risk appetite is gradually recovering. However, sentiment remains in Neutral rather than Greed. That means the market is improving without yet reaching the type of speculative positioning normally associated with a mature crypto rally.
Bitcoin has recovered toward $65K while sentiment remains relatively restrained, which could leave room for further improvement if BTC confirms its breakout.
The immediate resistance is $65,704.80. Above that, the next Fibonacci levels are $67,143 and $67,852. Support sits at $64,377, followed by $63,968, while the larger structural low is around $62,230.
A sustained 4H break above $65.7K would strengthen the move toward $67K+. Losing $64.37K would weaken the recovery.
ETH is trading around $1,918.52, above the 25-MA at $1,891.98 and the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $1,857.55.
The first major resistance is $1,964.27, followed by $2,071.07 and $2,223.10. Support sits at $1,725.44, while the larger structural low is around $1,511.90.
ETH needs to reclaim $1,964 to strengthen the bullish recovery. Holding $1,858 keeps the structure constructive; losing it would increase the probability of a deeper pullback.
ALTCOIN WATCH
JTO is trading around $0.5534, after breaking above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $0.5222 and moving above its moving-average cluster around $0.50.
Resistance is around $0.5584, followed by $0.6058 and $0.6165. Support sits at $0.5222 and $0.5110. A 4H break above $0.5584 would confirm continuation. Losing $0.5222 would weaken the breakout.
PUMP is trading around $0.002831, after breaking above $0.002238 and its 25-MA around $0.002080.
The first important level is $0.002721, while major resistance sits around $0.003207. Holding $0.00272 keeps the breakout structure intact. A move through $0.00320 would signal another expansion phase, while losing $0.00272 could trigger a retest toward $0.00224.
WLD is trading around $0.3500 after a strong breakout from its recent consolidation.
The key support zone is $0.3265–$0.3321. The next major Fibonacci levels are $0.3797 and $0.3979. A move toward $0.38 would be the next major upside test. A sharp rejection back below the breakout zone would warn of a failed breakout.
KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK
The calendar is packed with macro data, earnings and crypto-specific events.
Tuesday
- July Existing Home Sales
Wednesday
- OPEC Monthly Report
- July CPI
Thursday
- July PPI
Friday
- July Retail Sales
- August Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Earnings to watch: Rocket Lab Corporation, Super Micro Computer, Inc., Nebius Group N.V., Cisco Systems, Inc., CoreWeave, Inc., Intuitive Surgical, Inc.
CPI is the main event. The print could quickly shift Fed expectations and determine whether the current strength across risk assets continues.
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