CRYPTO HOLDS FIRM AS WAR RISKS RETURN
Markets are entering one of the most important weeks of the month with inflation data, a major IPO and renewed geopolitical tensions all competing for investor’s attention.
The biggest development over the weekend came from the Middle East, where Israel and Iran exchanged direct strikes once again, pushing oil prices higher and triggering heavy selling across global equity markets.
WAR RETURNS TO THE MARKET
Just when markets were beginning to price a path toward de-escalation, tensions in the Middle East escalated once again. Today’s events unfolded rapidly:
- Israel strikes Beirut, Lebanon
- Iran launches ballistic missiles toward Israel
- Trump publicly criticizes Israel’s actions and urges restraint
- Israel responds with strikes across Tehran and other military targets inside Iran
The escalation is significant because it comes at a critical moment for ongoing US-Iran negotiations. Trump stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would ultimately have “no choice” but to accept a US-backed agreement with Iran, emphasizing that “I call the shots.” Trump later reiterated that he still believes a deal is moving forward and that today’s missile exchanges would not derail negotiations.
However, markets are becoming increasingly skeptical. Israel and Iran are now engaged in a direct exchange of strikes while diplomats continue attempting to negotiate a deal in the background. For investors, uncertainty is back.
OIL IS RISING AGAIN
Energy markets reacted immediately to the latest escalation. WTI crude has climbed roughly 3.5% toward $94 as traders begin pricing in a higher geopolitical risk premium.
The concern is not just the conflict itself. Global oil inventories have already fallen sharply since the Iran war began earlier this year. According to JPMorgan estimates, visible global oil inventories have dropped to roughly 7.6 billion barrels, a level the bank describes as an operational stress threshold for the global energy system.
That leaves the oil market unusually sensitive to any disruption in Middle East supply. For investors, the implications extend far beyond energy. Higher oil prices risk feeding back into inflation at precisely the moment markets are preparing for this week’s CPI and PPI releases.
CRYPTO IS OUTPERFORMING GLOBAL MARKETS
Despite renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rally in oil prices and heavy selling across global equity markets, Bitcoin continues to hold relatively firm.
Global equities have been hit hard: South Korea (KOSPI): -8.3%, Japan (Nikkei): -3.9%, China (SSE): -1.7%, Hong Kong (Hang Seng): -1.6%, Australia: -1.4%, Germany (DAX): -1.2%, Euro Stoxx: -1.2%
Meanwhile: Bitcoin: +1.6%, Ethereum: +3.0%, Solana: +1.9%
The divergence is notable.
Investors are aggressively selling traditional risk assets while crypto continues absorbing the headlines without breaking lower. That said, crypto is not operating in a vacuum. If equities continue bleeding and oil continues climbing, digital assets may eventually face the same pressure affecting broader markets.
BITCOIN IS HOLDING THE LINE
Despite the volatility across global markets, Bitcoin managed to close the week back above its 200-week moving average, one of the most closely watched long-term support levels in crypto.
The move came after BTC swept the February lows, a pattern that often occurs during periods of heightened fear as markets search for liquidity before attempting to stabilize. The encouraging sign for bulls is that Bitcoin continues defending a level that has historically acted as a floor during major corrections.
For now, Bitcoin remains caught between two narratives: resilience in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions and the risk that broader market weakness eventually drags crypto lower.
ALTCOIN WATCH
Ethereum continues to be one of the weakest major assets in crypto, significantly underperforming Bitcoin. Currently sitting near major support at $1,650. Weekly RSI has fallen to roughly 27, placing Ethereum firmly in oversold territory and marking one of the weakest momentum readings of the cycle.
Oversold does not automatically mean bullish. ETH remains below its 200-week moving average and continues printing lower highs. If support near $1,650 fails, the next major downside target sits near $1,080, while bulls need to reclaim the $2,000-$2,050 region to improve the longer-term picture.
Ethena is becoming one of the more interesting divergences in crypto. On one side, sentiment took a hit after Arthur Hayes exited his entire ENA position, on the other side, the fundamental story continues improving.
ENA is generating approximately $4.62 million in daily fees on an $847 million market cap, making it one of the highest revenue-generating protocols in crypto relative to its valuation. At the same time, Coinbase Ventures has accumulated ENA through open-market purchases, and the first Coinbase × Ethena product launch is expected this week with native USDe integration on Base.
It remains below its 100-day moving average near $0.102, but continues holding support around $0.079-$0.080. A recovery above $0.095 would be the first sign that momentum is improving.
Solana remains under pressure, but it is beginning to approach one of the most important support zones on the entire chart. The network has recently been teasing a major announcement across its social channels, giving traders a potential catalyst to watch if broader market conditions begin improving. While geopolitical headlines continue dominating sentiment, any cooling in tensions could allow attention to shift back toward ecosystem-specific developments.
Currently testing the bottom of its multi-month range after an extended period of weakness. Price is sitting directly above a major support zone between $55-$60, an area that previously acted as a launchpad during earlier stages of the cycle.
The encouraging sign is that buyers have stepped in each time SOL has approached this region. The concern is that the asset remains well below both its 50-week ($136) and 100-week ($153) moving averages, showing that the broader trend remains firmly bearish.
For now, bulls need to defend the current support zone. If they do and geopolitical tensions begin easing, Solana could be one of the stronger candidates for a relief rally given how close it is to the bottom of its range.
While most altcoins continue struggling to find buyers, PIPPIN is quietly doing the exact opposite. The token has emerged as one of the strongest performers during a period of elevated uncertainty.
This isn’t the first time PIPPIN has shown relative strength. Previous corrections saw similar behavior, where the token managed to outperform while the broader market weakened.
Currently showing an aggressive recovery from recent lows and reclaiming both its 50-day moving average and the major resistance zone near $0.0185.
Price is now challenging the 100-day moving average around $0.0215, which represents the next major hurdle for bulls.
STOCKS ARE LOOKING FOR ANSWERS
Last Friday’s sell-off was one of the worst days for the Nasdaq in over a year, with the QQQ falling roughly 4%, its largest daily decline since April 2025. The challenge for investors is that there doesn’t appear to be a single reason behind the move.
The stronger-than-expected jobs report significantly reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, reinforcing concerns that inflation could remain sticky. At the same time, investors are preparing for what could become one of the largest capital-raising cycles in recent history, with SpaceX’s upcoming IPO expected to absorb substantial amounts of liquidity from financial markets.
Technology stocks also faced additional pressure after reports emerged that Meta could be considering new fundraising efforts, adding to concerns that the AI arms race is entering a new phase of capital spending following Alphabet’s recent $85 billion equity raise.
Meanwhile, Broadcom’s earnings failed to provide the type of guidance increase investors had become accustomed to seeing from AI leaders, giving traders an excuse to lock in profits after an exceptionally strong rally.
The result is a market that suddenly has more questions than answers.
WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK
This is an inflation week.
🔴 May CPI Inflation Data: Wednesday
🔴 May PPI Inflation Data: Thursday
🟠 Michigan Inflation Expectations & Consumer Sentiment: Friday
🟠 SpaceX IPO: June 12
The biggest question facing investors is whether crypto can continue showing resilience if geopolitical tensions rise further and inflation begins moving back in the wrong direction. The answer may define the rest of June.
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