NVIDIA IGNITES THE RISK-ON MOVE: NOW ALL EYES TURN TO WARSH
JACKSON HOLE IS THE NEXT VOLATILITY EVENT
Kevin Warsh speaks tomorrow at 10:00 AM ET / 6:00 PM UAE.
That is now the key event for markets.
There is no Q&A. The prepared remarks are the signal, and the first headlines could trigger the biggest move of the week. The highest-volatility window is likely to be 9:50–10:20 AM ET, as traders position into the speech and then reprice rates, equities and crypto.
The market enters the event with a simple setup: Nvidia has reignited risk appetite, but Warsh can either extend the move or put a lid on it.
NVIDIA HAS TURNED THE MARKET BACK INTO RISK-ON
Nvidia delivered the catalyst bulls were looking for.
The company reported $96.2 billion in Q2 revenue, up 106% YoY, while Data Center revenue reached $89 billion. Q3 revenue guidance came in at approximately $108 billion, above expectations.
But the bigger story was forward demand. Nvidia expects roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, significantly above what the market had been modeling.
The reaction has been immediate.
Technology is now leading the equity market, up more than 3%, while Financial Services, Industrials, Healthcare, Consumer and Communication remain mixed to negative.
This is not a broad-based melt-up yet. It is an AI-led risk-on move, with Nvidia at the center.
EQUITIES: NVDA BREAKS OUT NASDAQ AND S&P FOLLOW
Nvidia is trading around $229, having pushed sharply through the $220 area after earnings.
The technical picture has completely changed. NVDA has reclaimed the previous breakdown zone and is now testing the $229.5 area. A sustained break above this level puts $234.3 and then $237.3 into play.
On the downside, $224.7 is the first level to hold, followed by $221.7 and $219.3. The bigger level is $213.4. As long as Nvidia remains above that zone, the earnings breakout remains technically constructive.
The Nasdaq is trading around $721, with the chart holding above $718.3 and $706.9. A move back toward the previous high around $736.8 would strengthen the continuation setup.
The S&P 500 is around $772, with $766.5 acting as the first important support. Holding above it keeps $780.4 in focus, followed by $794.4.
The message is simple: Nvidia has pulled the broader indices higher, but the rally still needs the Nasdaq and S&P to hold their breakout structures.
GOLD: STILL BELOW KEY RESISTANCE
Gold is trading around $4,610 after another volatile session.
The chart shows price below the major moving-average cluster, with the 50 MA around $4,624, the 21 MA around $4,608, and the 100 MA around $4,633.
The immediate resistance zone is $4,616–$4,629, followed by $4,646. On the downside, $4,586 is the first major support, with the broader support zone around $4,560–$4,570.
For gold, the next move is heavily dependent on the dollar and real-rate reaction to Warsh.
A dovish Warsh could help gold reclaim $4,629 and target $4,646. A hawkish signal risks another move toward $4,586 and the lower support zone.
OIL IS TRADING ITS OWN STORY
Crude is not following Nvidia’s risk-on move.
CL is around $82.76, sitting directly around the $82.75 Fibonacci resistance level.
A clean break above $83.47 would strengthen the bullish setup and put $84.49 into focus. Failure around $82.75 keeps the range intact, with $81.14 as the first important support and $79.86 below that.
Oil remains primarily a Hormuz and geopolitical trade, rather than an AI or equity-beta trade.
Stocks and crypto can rally while crude remains capped because the oil market is still pricing the possibility of easing geopolitical risk.
A break above $83.47 would strengthen the bullish case. Failure around $82.75 keeps the range intact.
CRYPTO: BTC HOLDS $80K: SOL IS THE REAL OUTPERFORMER
Crypto is following the same risk-on rotation.
Bitcoin is back above $80K after briefly losing the level following the hotter PCE print. BTC is now around $80.8K, with the chart showing $80.95K as immediate resistance. A clean break there would put $81.44K–$81.98K into play, followed by $83.01K.
The key support remains $79.94K, while $78.88K and $77.76K sit below if the rally fails.
The key question is whether BTC can hold above $80K and break $81K. That would confirm that the post-PCE recovery is becoming a continuation move rather than just a bounce.
ETH is also holding higher around $2,528, above its $2,504 21-MA and $2,473 100-MA. ETH needs to reclaim $2,568 to turn the current consolidation into another leg higher, with $2,618 and $2,674 above that.
But ETH is not where the strongest momentum is developing.
SOL IS STARTING TO OUTPERFORM ETH
Solana is trading around $108, well above its major moving averages and the previous breakout zone around $100–104.
More importantly, SOL is now outperforming ETH on the current rotation.
The chart is pressing against $109.34, with $112.77 and $119.21 above. On the downside, $103.80 is the first support, while $100.38 is the key breakout area.
If SOL can hold above $103–104 while continuing to outperform ETH, the next leg could accelerate.
HYPE IS MAKING NEW HIGHS
HYPERLIQUID is showing even stronger momentum.
It is trading around $85.4, directly below the chart high near $86.1. A clean breakout and hold above $86 opens $91.4, then $94.4 and potentially $99.5.
This is one of the clearest momentum charts in the current crypto market, although the vertical move means confirmation is more important than chasing.
SOLANA MEME BETA IS WAKING UP
The rotation is beginning to show up in Solana’s meme-coins.
TRUMP is trading around $2.62, with $2.81 acting as the major breakout level. A reclaim there puts $3.11 back into focus.
MELANIA is around $0.116, sitting directly around the $0.1168 resistance level. A breakout would put roughly $0.142 into play.
Both charts are showing a similar structure: long bases followed by sharp expansion and then consolidation. That does not guarantee another vertical move, but if SOL continues to lead, these higher-beta names are exactly where rotation can accelerate.
BTC holding $80K: ETH stabilizing: SOL outperforming: HYPE making new highs: Solana meme beta waking up.
That is the early structure of a broader rotation.
THE WARSH SETUP
The prediction market currently shows a 68% probability of no change, while a 25 bps increase is at 31%.
The market is therefore leaning heavily toward no change in September, but there is still meaningful risk around the hike scenario.
That makes the speech about tone, not an actual rate decision.
A dovish read would push hike expectations lower, pulling yields and the dollar down and giving the Nvidia-led risk rally more room to extend. That would be the strongest environment for Nasdaq, BTC, SOL, HYPE and other high-beta assets.
A hawkish signal would do the opposite. Higher hike expectations could send yields and the dollar higher, putting pressure back on equities and crypto. Nvidia’s earnings can be exceptional and still fail to protect the broader market if rates become the dominant trade.
A neutral or vague speech could produce an initial volatility spike before markets return to trading Nvidia’s earnings, upcoming economic data and positioning into September.
THE CLOCK MATTERS TOMORROW
10:00 AM ET / 6:00 PM UAE.
U.S. cash equities will already be open, meaning this is a live-tape event rather than a premarket catalyst.
The key window is 9:50–10:20 AM ET.
Before the speech, watch positioning and liquidity. At 10:00, the first headlines will likely hit rates and the dollar first. Then watch whether Nasdaq and BTC confirm the move.
Do not trade the first headline blindly..
THE LEVELS THAT MATTER
Going into the event, BTC needs to hold $80K and clear $81K. SOL needs to defend $104 and break $109. HYPE is pressing against $86. NVDA is testing $229.5. The Nasdaq needs to hold $718, while the S&P needs to defend $766.5. Gold is fighting $4,629, while WTI is fighting $82.75. If those levels break in the same direction as Warsh’s tone, the move could accelerate quickly.
Nvidia has put risk assets back in green but Warsh’s speech can quickly turn the momentum in favour of bears.
STAY AHEAD OF THE VOLATILITY
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