PPI COOLS AS THE S&P 500 HITS A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH
The market is shifting decisively back toward risk-on positioning.
July PPI came in softer than expected, September Fed rate-hike odds fell sharply, and U.S. equities pushed to fresh records. The S&P 500 moved above 7,800 for the first time in history, taking its total market value to a record $70.8 trillion.
At the same time, gold, silver and oil are pulling back, while stocks and parts of the crypto market are gaining. The message from today’s session is becoming clearer: cooler inflation is reducing the pressure for further Fed tightening and allowing risk assets to extend higher.
THE DISINFLATION TREND GETS ANOTHER BOOST
July producer prices came in below expectations, adding another positive inflation signal after yesterday’s CPI.
Headline PPI came in at 0.0% MoM versus +0.2% expected, while core PPI rose +0.2% versus +0.3% expected. On a yearly basis, PPI slowed to 4.7% from 5.5% previously, also below the 4.9% consensus.
There is still a caveat beneath the headline number: PPI excluding food, energy and trade services increased 0.4%, showing that some underlying price pressures remain. Even so, the overall report is being treated as a bullish inflation print, strengthening the cooling-inflation narrative and supporting the move back into risk assets.
RATE-HIKE ODDS FALL AS MARKETS REPRICE THE FED
The market reaction has been immediate.
September 25-basis-point rate-hike odds have fallen to 27%, down 8 percentage points today and 21 percentage points over the past week.
That repricing is important because it removes some of the monetary-policy pressure that had been hanging over risk assets. If upcoming economic data continues to confirm that inflation is cooling, markets could continue reducing the probability of another hike.
For now, the direction is clear: less pressure for a hike is giving equities and crypto more room to run.
THE S&P 500 HITS A RECORD AS RISK APPETITE RETURNS
The S&P 500 has pushed above 7,800 for the first time in history, marking another record for U.S. equities and taking the index’s total market value to $70.8 trillion.
On the 4-hour timeframe, SPY is trading around $778.66, with price pressing toward the $780.50 resistance level after a strong recovery. Price remains above the 25 MA at $773.76, 50 MA at $773.09 and 100 MA at $760.68, keeping the short-term structure bullish.
A sustained move through $780.50 would keep the breakout structure intact, with $792.84 and $800.47 as the next upside levels. Support sits around $778.16, followed by $760.52.
The Nasdaq is showing even stronger momentum.
On the 4-hour timeframe, QQQ is trading around $733.28, up roughly 1.12%, after breaking above $728.47. Price is holding above the 25 MA at $723.77, 50 MA at $722.22, and 100 MA at $705.85.
The next upside levels are $745.35, $755.79 and $772.66, while $711.62 is the first major support. The major-index structure remains bullish as long as these breakout zones continue to hold.
METALS ARE PULLING BACK AS CAPITAL ROTATES INTO RISK
The shift toward risk appetite is showing clearly in precious metals.
Gold is trading around $4,374, down roughly 1.14%, while silver is around $64.85, down roughly 1.57%.
On the 1-day timeframe, gold has pulled back from its move toward $4,455 and is now testing the $4,321.84 Fibonacci support. Price remains above the 25 day MA at $4,167.88, with the 50 day MA at $4,126.25.
Holding $4,321.84 keeps the broader recovery structure intact. Below that, $4,254.36 and $4,145.30 become the next levels to watch.
On the 1-day timeframe, silver has rejected the $66.58 resistance level and is now pulling back toward $62.09 support. Below that, $59.31 becomes important, while a recovery through $66.58 would reopen $71.07 and $73.84.
The divergence is important: equities and crypto are gaining while metals retreat, signalling a rotation away from defensive positioning and back toward risk.
OIL IS GIVING BACK ITS GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM
Oil is also moving lower, with crude down around 2.10% at $81.10, as there has been no major fresh escalation in the war for a while, allowing some of the geopolitical premium to come out of crude.
The move is being reinforced by the broader risk-on rotation and softer inflation backdrop. However, the geopolitical situation remains unresolved, meaning oil can still react sharply to any new escalation.
On the 4-hour timeframe, WTI is trading around $81.38, after pulling back from the recent move toward $84.19. Price is sitting around the $81.06 Fibonacci level while remaining above the 25 MA at $81.19, 50 MA at $79.02, and 100 MA at $80.51.
A break below $81.06 would expose $77.94, while reclaiming $84.19 would put $87.31 back into focus. For now, crude is cooling as the market moves away from defensive positioning, but the war remains the key upside risk.
HOOD AND TSLA ARE RIDING THE RETURN OF RISK APPETITE
Higher-beta stocks are also benefiting from the shift in positioning.
On the 4-hour timeframe, HOOD is trading around $98.57, up roughly 4.5%, after breaking higher from its recent consolidation. Price has reclaimed $96.59 and is approaching $100.56 resistance.
The moving averages remain supportive, with the 25 MA at $94.86, 50 MA at $94.00, and 100 MA at $91.82. A clean break above $100.56 would target $104.52, $106.98 and $110.94, while $96.59 is the first support.
On the 4-hour timeframe, TSLA is trading around $333.84, up roughly 2.2%, and is holding above $326.01 support while testing $335.97 resistance. Price remains above the 25 MA at $331.07 and 50 MA at $328.54, with the 100 MA at $320.36.
A breakout above $335.97 would open $345.94 and $352.11, while losing $326.01 would weaken the setup. Both stocks are showing how quickly momentum can return when macro pressure starts to ease.
CRYPTO SENTIMENT REMAINS IN FEAR, BUT THE RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY
Crypto sentiment remains in Fear at 30, but the trend is recovering from the deeper fear levels seen earlier. Bitcoin has stabilized while several altcoins are beginning to show stronger momentum.
However, with the index still at 30, the market has not yet transitioned into a full risk-on environment. The setup is improving, but conviction still needs to build.
BITCOIN IS RANGE-BOUND WHILE ETHEREUM HOLDS ITS RECOVERY
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is trading around $63,631, with price still below the $63,801 level and the $64,436–$64,628 resistance zone.
The immediate downside levels are $63,169, $62,974 and $62,148. BTC needs to reclaim the $64K area to strengthen its short-term structure.
On the 1-day timeframe, Ethereum is around $1,888, consolidating around $1,852.27 support and holding above the 50-day MA at $1,818.38.
The main resistance is $1,962.42, followed by $2,072.57 and $2,229.40. Holding $1,852 keeps the recovery intact.
ALTCOINS ARE STARTING TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH
On the 1-day timeframe, ATOM is around $1.519, up roughly 7.9%, after breaking higher from a prolonged downtrend. Price has reclaimed $1.467 and is testing $1.520 resistance.
A sustained breakout above $1.520 would target $1.593, $1.711 and $1.829. The 25 day MA at $1.373 and 50 day MA at $1.467 are important supports.
On the 1-day timeframe, ETHFI is trading around $0.3973, up roughly 5.2%, after rebounding from its recent low and reclaiming $0.3956.
The key resistance is $0.4112, followed by $0.4268, $0.4520 and $0.4772. Holding $0.3956 keeps the recovery structure constructive.
On the 1-day timeframe, PUMP is around $0.002907, up roughly 5.1%, continuing its breakout from the July base.
Price has moved above $0.002615 and is approaching $0.003070 resistance. A break above that level would put $0.003525 into focus, while $0.002615 is the key support.
The altcoin market is showing improving breadth, but the strongest breakouts still need to hold their reclaimed levels to confirm that momentum is sustainable.
STAY AHEAD OF THE MOVE
With PPI coming in below expectations, rate-hike odds falling to 27% and the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high, momentum is clearly favoring risk assets.
Stay disciplined, avoid chasing extended moves and wait for confirmation as the market digests the latest inflation data.
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