Markets Rebound as Risk Appetite Returns
Global markets started the week in risk-on mode after signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran reduced concerns over a broader regional conflict. Lower oil prices and improving sentiment helped equities recover, while Bitcoin demonstrated resilience by absorbing Strategy’s latest BTC sale without triggering another wave of selling.
With the geopolitical backdrop temporarily improving, investors now turn their attention to a packed week of corporate earnings and economic data, highlighted by SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report as a public company and Friday’s closely watched U.S. jobs report.
US-Iran De-escalation Sparks Risk-On Recovery
Over the weekend, Trump stated that planned strikes had been called off following diplomatic outreach involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iranian representatives. Trump also suggested that discussions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and broader negotiations could continue.
The softer geopolitical tone immediately reduced the market’s risk premium. Oil prices fell sharply as fears of supply disruptions eased, while U.S. equity futures moved higher and investors rotated back into risk assets.
On the 4-hour chart, WTI is now testing the important $80.63 support level. If sellers remain in control, the next downside target sits near $75.31. To regain momentum, buyers first need to reclaim $83.19, followed by the major resistance at $85.89. Price remains below 83.20, 83.25, and 84.65, keeping short-term momentum tilted to the downside.
Although tensions have not disappeared, markets are currently pricing a lower probability of an immediate escalation than they were just a few days ago.
Yen Carry Trade Remains a Key Macro Risk
While geopolitical concerns have eased, currency markets remain an important source of potential volatility. Following coordinated intervention by U.S. and Japanese authorities, the Japanese Yen strengthened sharply after reaching multi-decade lows against the U.S. Dollar. The move has revived concerns surrounding the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, where investors borrow low-interest Yen to purchase higher-yielding assets such as U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies.
Historically, rapid carry-trade unwinds have created sharp cross-market volatility. Any further intervention or continued Yen strength could once again pressure global risk assets.
Stocks and Earnings
QQQ continues recovering after last week’s volatility. On the 4-hour chart, QQQ has reclaimed the important 684.19 support area and is now testing resistance around 699-700.
A successful breakout above this region would expose the next upside target near 710.16. Price remains above 684.78, 690.13, and 690.74, indicating that buyers currently control the short-term trend.
Amazon continues to outperform following last week’s strong earnings report, becoming one of the few companies to surpass a $3 trillion market capitalization. Investors continue rewarding the company’s accelerating AWS growth and expanding AI infrastructure business.
From a technical perspective, Amazon remains firmly above its recent breakout zone. On the daily chart, previous resistance at $273.42 has now turned into support following the earnings breakout. As long as buyers defend this level, the next major upside target remains $302.58.
Price also continues trading above 245.12, 249.19, and 253.30 on the daily chart, confirming that the broader trend remains bullish.
SpaceX Earnings Take Center Stage
Tomorrow’s biggest event will be SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company. Markets will closely monitor Starlink subscriber growth, AI infrastructure spending, profitability, and management’s long-term outlook. Given SpaceX’s growing influence across both the space and AI industries, tomorrow’s report could become one of the week’s biggest catalysts for technology stocks.
Technically, SpaceX remains below major resistance. On the 4-hour chart, immediate resistance sits at $119.94, followed by $136.15. Initial support remains around $104.80. Price continues trading below 111.68 and 115.99, making tomorrow’s earnings release a potential catalyst for the next major breakout.
Gold Pulls Back Toward Trendline Support
XAU is giving back some of last week’s safe-haven gains as investors rotate back into risk assets.
On the 4-hour chart, Gold has retraced toward a rising trendline that has supported prices throughout the recent recovery. Immediate support remains around $3,988, while resistance sits at $4,078, followed by $4,162. Price continues trading below 4,065.93, 4,062.71, and 4,067.23, leaving momentum neutral until either support or resistance gives way.
Strategy Builds a Bigger Cash Reserve While Maintaining Bitcoin Exposure
MSTR, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, announced another major balance sheet update this week, increasing its USD Reserve by $250 million to $4.0 billion while continuing to optimize its capital structure. During the week ending August 2, the company sold 1,638 BTC for approximately $104.7 million at an average price of $63,957 per Bitcoin. The proceeds were primarily used to fund preferred stock dividends and repurchase $81.2 million worth of STRC preferred shares, reducing future financing obligations.
The company also raised additional capital by selling 3.01 million MSTR shares, generating roughly $290.6 million in net proceeds. Of that amount, $250 million was added directly to the USD Reserve, while the remainder supported further STRC buybacks and corporate liquidity.
Despite the sale, Strategy still holds 842,138 BTC, acquired for approximately $63.5 billion, making it by far the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
Michael Saylor later clarified that while he personally has never sold any of his Bitcoin, Strategy, as a publicly traded company, actively manages its balance sheet to support dividends, strengthen credit metrics, and improve long-term capital efficiency.
Crypto Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains cautious despite Bitcoin’s resilience. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 36 (Fear), improving slightly from yesterday but still reflecting a defensive market environment.
While easing geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices have helped improve risk appetite, investors remain focused on this week’s major macro catalysts. A sustained move above $64,000 in Bitcoin would likely improve sentiment further, while another rejection from resistance could keep traders cautious heading into Friday’s jobs report.
Bitcoin Shows Strength Despite Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale
Despite Strategy announcing the sale of 1,638 BTC worth approximately $104.7 million, Bitcoin absorbed the selling pressure remarkably well. Instead of breaking lower, buyers stepped in below $63,000, allowing the market to recover toward the $64,000 resistance area. The market’s ability to hold firm despite negative headlines highlights improving underlying demand.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues consolidating above major support. On the daily chart, the key support remains near $60,000, while immediate resistance sits around $67,300. A breakout above this region would expose the next major resistance near $74,200.
Price remains below 63,278.6, 64,285.8, and 68,469.0, meaning bulls still need to reclaim these levels before confirming a broader trend reversal.
Ethereum is attempting to stabilize after defending its recent support zone. On the 1-hour chart, ETH is trading around $1,870, with immediate resistance near $1,888, followed by $1,936.
Support remains near $1,838, while losing this level could expose the broader demand zone around $1,560. Price is currently trading near 1,861.11 and 1,862.82, while remaining below 1,873.65, meaning buyers still need to reclaim overhead resistance before momentum fully shifts higher.
HYPE continues defending one of its most important demand zones. On the daily chart, buyers continue protecting the $54-56 support region after several weeks of correction.
The next resistance sits between $61 and $64, while losing current support could expose the next major downside level near $46.50.
PIPPIN is one of today’s strongest-performing altcoins after breaking above multiple resistance levels. On the 1-hour chart, price has reclaimed $0.01687 and is now approaching resistance near $0.01804.
A successful breakout above this level would expose the next upside target around $0.01867. Price remains above 0.01619, 0.01613, and 0.01610, supporting the current bullish momentum.
What to Watch This Week
Markets now shift their attention toward one of the busiest weeks of the month. The biggest macro event arrives on Friday with the U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls Report, which will heavily influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Before then, traders will closely monitor JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday and ADP Employment Change on Wednesday for additional insight into labor market conditions.
Corporate earnings also remain a major catalyst. AMD, SpaceX (SPCX), and Circle (CRCL) report on Tuesday, followed by Sandisk (SNDK) on Wednesday. With roughly 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting this week, earnings will remain one of the primary drivers of market direction.
Within crypto, attention also remains on Hyperliquid’s upcoming revenue-sharing model, Solana’s expected inflation proposal, a teased announcement from the Sei Network, and continued ETF flow data.
Stay Ahead of the Market
The best traders don’t react to the news, they prepare for it. Every week, major macro events, earnings reports, and technical levels shape the next move across global markets. Stay informed, stay disciplined, and let your strategy do the work.
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The Bitfunded Team