MARKETS SHAKE OFF WAR RISKS, BUT TARIFF THREATS RETURN
Global markets continue to display remarkable resilience despite a rapidly evolving macro backdrop. On one hand, geopolitical tensions have intensified after the U.S. expanded its military campaign against Iran. CENTCOM confirmed another round of strikes targeting military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, air defense systems, and maritime infrastructure, extending the longest sustained bombing campaign since July 11.
At the same time, another major macro risk is emerging. President Trump is reportedly preparing a new round of tariffs on up to 60 countries before the current 10% global tariff regime expires later this week. The proposed measures would target countries including China, the European Union, Japan, Canada, and Mexico through a new legal framework centered on forced labor investigations.
Normally, either of these developments would pressure risk assets. Instead, markets have largely looked through both risks. U.S. equities opened higher, Bitcoin climbed back above $66K, crypto markets traded broadly in the green, and institutional demand for Bitcoin continued improving.
For now, investors appear focused on market momentum rather than macro uncertainty. Whether that resilience holds will depend on how both geopolitical and trade developments evolve in the coming days.
OIL SURGES AS IRAN RETALIATES
Oil prices moved sharply higher after Iran announced retaliatory strikes following recent U.S. military operations. According to Iranian state media, the latest attacks targeted an Amazon data center in Bahrain and water desalination plants in Kuwait, raising concerns that the conflict could spread further across the Gulf.
The market reacted immediately, with WTI crude climbing above $85 per barrel as traders priced in the risk of supply disruptions from one of the world’s most important energy-producing regions.
On the daily chart, WTI is trading around $84.66, reclaiming its 10 MA ($79.76) and breaking above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($80.85). The next resistance sits near $84.97, while a sustained breakout could expose the $102.45 level.
Higher energy prices remain one of the biggest macro risks for financial markets, as a prolonged rally in crude could reignite inflation pressures and complicate expectations for future interest rate cuts.
U.S. EQUITIES REMAIN RESILIENT
Despite rising geopolitical tensions, U.S. stocks opened the session firmly higher.
The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, while the Nasdaq advanced 1%, suggesting investors remain focused on earnings, liquidity, and corporate fundamentals rather than geopolitical headlines.
The resilience in equities mirrors the broader market environment, where investors continue adding exposure to risk assets despite an increasingly uncertain macro backdrop.
QQQ REBOUNDS BUT FACES A KEY TEST
On the 4-hour chart, QQQ is trading around 706.47, reclaiming both its 25 MA ($697.97) and 50 MA ($705.84), signaling that short-term momentum has turned positive. However, the ETF remains below its 100 MA ($712.95), which represents the next major technical hurdle for buyers.
A sustained move above the 100 MA would strengthen the recovery and bring the next resistance at $725.99 into focus. Clearing this level would suggest the recent pullback has run its course and that bullish momentum is returning.
On the downside, $694.11 remains the key support level. Holding above this area would preserve the current uptrend, while a break below it could invite renewed selling pressure.
With earnings season gaining momentum, QQQ’s reaction around the 100 MA will be an important gauge of whether technology stocks can continue leading the broader market higher.
ROBINHOOD BREAKS OUT
Robinhood extended its rally after Bernstein raised its price target to $160, citing prediction markets as a potentially larger future revenue source than crypto.
Technically, HOOD has reclaimed its 25 MA, 50 MA, and 100 MA, with the next resistance levels at $108.52 and $114.32.
SPACEX REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
Unlike broader markets, SpaceX continues to struggle. The stock has now closed lower in 10 of its last 11 sessions, trading around $119.85, down more than 45% from its June high and below its IPO listing price.
The prolonged decline highlights continued profit-taking despite broader market resilience.
GOLD TESTS MAJOR RESISTANCE
XAU continues recovering as investors balance improving risk appetite with rising geopolitical uncertainty. On the 4-hour chart, Gold is trading around $4,075, reclaiming both its 25 MA ($4,027) and 50 MA ($4,028) while testing its 100 MA ($4,075).
A sustained move above the 100 MA would expose resistance at $4,095, followed by $4,205. The $4,027 region now becomes the first support zone, while $3,973 remains the key level bulls need to defend.
CRYPTO SENTIMENT RETURNS TO NEUTRAL
Investor confidence continues recovering as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index officially moves out of Fear territory. The index currently stands at 40, up from 37 yesterday, 34 last week, and 21 one month ago.
The improvement reflects stronger institutional demand, resilient price action, and growing confidence despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty. Although sentiment has recovered considerably, the market remains in Neutral, suggesting optimism is returning without reaching excessive levels.
ETF DEMAND RETURNS
Institutional appetite for Bitcoin continues improving as spot Bitcoin ETFs extend their recovery. After experiencing a period of net outflows earlier this month, ETFs have now recorded six consecutive sessions of positive inflows, including $226.9 million in the latest trading session.
The return of sustained inflows suggests institutional investors continue allocating capital to Bitcoin despite elevated geopolitical risks. Consistent ETF demand provides an important source of structural buying and has helped support Bitcoin’s recovery above $66,000.
BITCOIN HOLDS ABOVE $66,000
Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience as buyers absorb selling pressure despite growing geopolitical uncertainty. On the daily chart, BTC is trading around $66,856, holding above both its 25 MA ($62,567) and 50 MA ($63,132) after breaking out from a multi-week base.
The next major resistance sits near $67,458. A decisive breakout above this level would strengthen the bullish structure and expose the next major resistance around $75,360. The 50 MA ($63,132) now serves as the first key support, followed by the 25 MA ($62,567).
Although technical momentum continues improving, traders should remain attentive to spot demand, which remains an important factor in determining whether the rally can be sustained.
ETHEREUM LEADS THE LARGE-CAP RECOVERY
ETH continues to outperform as buyers push the second-largest cryptocurrency through another important technical level. On the daily chart, it is trading around $1,935, holding well above its 50 MA ($1,732) while approaching the 25 MA ($1,984).
The next major resistance sits near $2,158, followed closely by the 200 MA ($2,172). A successful breakout through this zone would represent a significant shift in Ethereum’s long-term technical structure.
The 50 MA remains the first major support if the market experiences another pullback.
ONDO SURGES AFTER TOKENIZED STOCK EXPANSION
It rallied more than 15% after launching tokenized stock collateral on OndoPerps, allowing users to trade perpetual futures using SPYon and QQQon as collateral. The protocol has now surpassed $3.8 billion in trading volume, reinforcing growing demand for tokenized real-world assets.
Technically, ONDO has reclaimed its 25 MA, 50 MA, and 200 MA, while breaking above $0.395. The next resistance sits near $0.451.
LIDO DAO EXTENDS ITS BREAKOUT
It continues outperforming as capital rotates back into Ethereum-related assets. The token has reclaimed all three major moving averages and is now trading above its 200 MA, signaling improving long-term momentum.
The next resistance sits near $0.449, while $0.362 becomes the first major support.
TRADE GLOBAL MARKETS WITH BITFUNDED
Today’s session highlighted an important theme: markets continue climbing despite mounting macro uncertainty.
Escalating geopolitical tensions, the prospect of new U.S. tariffs, and higher oil prices have done little to derail the recovery in equities and cryptocurrencies. At the same time, improving ETF inflows and strengthening technical structures suggest investors continue allocating capital toward risk assets.
Whether this resilience persists will depend on how geopolitical developments, trade policy, and macroeconomic data evolve throughout the week.
With Bitfunded, you can trade Crypto, Commodities, Indices, and Stocks from a single funded account, giving you the flexibility to capitalize on opportunities across global markets without risking your own capital.
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