BITCOIN REBOUNDS AS MARKETS NAVIGATE FRESH MACRO RISKS
Global markets entered the session under pressure as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued weakness in semiconductor stocks weighed on investor sentiment.
While Bitcoin has recovered from yesterday’s sharp selloff, traditional markets remain cautious as traders balance improving crypto flows against rising macro uncertainty.
With the FOMC Minutes due later this week and geopolitical headlines returning, volatility is once again taking center stage.
GLOBAL MARKETS START THE DAY UNDER PRESSURE
Reports that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging two vessels, renewed concerns over one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
At the same time, chip stocks continued to face pressure following concerns that AI infrastructure spending may be slowing.
Meanwhile, investors rotated back toward defensive assets. The VIX climbed more than 4%, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also strengthened as traders sought safety. Although crypto has shown resilience, the broader market has shifted back toward a more cautious, risk-off tone.
CRUDE OIL REBOUNDS AS TENSIONS RETURN
Oil prices have recovered sharply after last week’s decline as geopolitical risks re-enter the market. Iran’s latest attacks on commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz have renewed concerns about global energy supplies.
CL has rebounded more than 5% from its recent low near $67.5. Price is now testing the key $70.5 resistance level. A breakout above $70.5 would strengthen the recovery and towards the next resistance near $72.2. The $69 region now acts as first support.
STRATEGY’S BUYING POWER IS EVOLVING
Much of the market’s focus has been on Saylor becoming a seller. The more important question may be whether it becomes a smaller buyer. Strategy’s STRC preferred shares currently represent approximately $10.5 billion in value and pay a 12% annual dividend, equivalent to roughly $105 million per month.
Even if those payments are funded through Bitcoin sales, the amount represents only a tiny fraction of Bitcoin’s daily trading volume.
The bigger shift is capital allocation. For years, Strategy consistently raised debt and equity to acquire more Bitcoin. If more cash is now directed toward servicing preferred securities instead of purchasing BTC, Strategy’s contribution to long-term demand may gradually decline.
The market isn’t worried about $105 million of monthly selling. It’s watching whether one of Bitcoin’s biggest buyers begins buying less.
INSTITUTIONAL BUYERS RETURN
Institutional demand continues to improve. After ending last week with $221.7 million of inflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted another $265.7 million on Monday. The back-to-back positive sessions follow nearly a week of persistent outflows.
BlackRock once again led demand, with several other ETF issuers also recording positive flows. While two days don’t establish a new trend, they suggest institutional sentiment is beginning to stabilize after the recent correction. If ETF inflows continue this week, they could provide an important source of support for Bitcoin.
BITCOIN ERASES THE STRATEGY SELL-OFF
The market’s response to Strategy’s sale ultimately proved short-lived. Bitcoin fully recovered the 2.5% decline triggered by the announcement and even extended the rally to roughly $64.7K before pulling back toward $63K.
It is now consolidating around both its 25 and 50-period ($63.2K) moving averages. These levels now become important short-term support. A move back above $64K would put the recent high near $64.7K back into focus. On the downside, losing the moving averages would take it towards $62.8K, followed by the stronger support around $61.4K.
The fact that Bitcoin completely absorbed Strategy’s sale highlights continued underlying demand.
HYPERLIQUID CONTINUES TO STAND OUT
While much of the market focuses on short-term price action, Hyperliquid continues building one of crypto’s strongest tokenomic models.
Current annualized supply growth:
- HYPE: +0.14%
- ETH: +0.83%
- SOL: +3.76%
Approximately 97% of protocol revenue is used to buy back HYPE on the open market before permanently burning it. Nearly 45 million HYPE has already been removed from circulation. Higher trading volume leads to higher protocol revenue, larger buybacks, lower circulating supply, and stronger long-term token value.
HYPE has reclaimed both its 25-day ($66.8) and 50-day ($64.2) moving averages. Price is now testing the important $70.6-$71.3 resistance zone. A successful breakout could target $76, while continued momentum could eventually open the path toward $90.
If rejected, the first support lies near $66.8, followed by $61.8-$59.7.
BONK is cooling off after its recent rally, with traders taking profits as the broader crypto market reacted to Strategy’s Bitcoin sale.
It was rejected from the 0.00000512 resistance and has slipped below both its 25 and 50-period moving averages, putting short-term momentum under pressure. The token is now testing 0.00000428 support. Holding this level could set up another move toward 0.00000475 and eventually 0.00000512. If support fails, the next downside level sits near 0.00000402.
SPACEX JOINS THE NASDAQ-100
SPCX officially joins the Nasdaq-100, becoming the fastest company ever added to the index. Despite the milestone, price action remains weak.
It continues trading roughly 30% below its recent all-time high, maintaining a series of lower highs and lower lows. The $160-$161 area remains immediate resistance. A break above $166 would be the first indication buyers are regaining control. On the downside, $149 remains the key support.
WHAT TO WATCH
Markets have quickly moved from celebrating Bitcoin’s recovery to navigating fresh macro uncertainty. Strategy’s first meaningful Bitcoin sale created a temporary shock, but the market’s ability to fully absorb the selling pressure is an encouraging sign.
At the same time, institutional demand has begun improving, with Bitcoin ETFs recording two consecutive days of positive inflows. The challenge now comes from outside crypto.
Renewed geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and continued weakness in global equity markets all have the potential to shift investors back toward a broader risk-off stance.
For Bitcoin, the coming days will likely depend less on crypto-specific news and more on whether macro risks continue to escalate.
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