FROM PANIC TO RECOVERY, BITCOIN IS TESTING $60K AGAIN
Futures opened under pressure today, with BTC briefly falling below $58K as renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on market sentiment. The decline, however, proved temporary.
It recovered during the U.S. trading session, climbing back toward the psychologically important $60K level. The rebound suggests underlying demand remains resilient while also highlighting how sensitive financial markets continue to be to geopolitical developments.
With Iran once again escalating its rhetoric, central banks continuing to prepare for long-term uncertainty, and major developments unfolding across crypto and artificial intelligence, investors are entering the second half of the year with volatility remaining firmly in focus.
IRAN PUTS DIPLOMACY ON HOLD
Just days after optimism surrounding renewed negotiations, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf declared that talks with the United States are effectively over until several key demands are met.
Iran insists negotiations will not continue until frozen Iranian assets are released, Israel withdraws from Lebanon, and military operations come to an end. Ghalibaf also described recent U.S. strikes as a “violation of the ceasefire.”
Perhaps more importantly for global markets, Iran reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz remains its “greatest power tool” and confirmed plans to begin charging transit fees for vessels after the current 60-day period expires.
Although the headlines initially pushed Bitcoin below $58K, the market quickly absorbed the selling pressure, allowing BTC to recover above $60K.
THE U.S. HAS LESS ROOM TO RESPOND TO AN OIL SHOCK
One factor making today’s geopolitical tensions even more significant is the state of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The reserve has fallen to its lowest level in almost 40 years, leaving the U.S. with significantly less emergency oil capacity than during previous geopolitical crises.
If tensions escalate and oil supplies become disrupted, policymakers have a much smaller buffer available to stabilize energy markets. With inflation already proving difficult to control, another energy shock would add further pressure to central banks around the world.
WHY CENTRAL BANKS ARE BUYING GOLD AGAIN?
Despite recent weakness in gold prices, central banks continue increasing their exposure.
According to the latest World Gold Council survey, a record 90% of central banks cited gold’s performance during periods of crisis as one of the primary reasons they continue accumulating the metal.
The survey also found:
- 84% view gold as a long-term inflation hedge.
- 83% see it as an effective portfolio diversifier.
- 85% of emerging-market central banks consider gold an important geopolitical hedge.
While short-term investors often react to interest rates and price movements, central banks continue positioning for long-term geopolitical uncertainty.
TRUMP’S CRYPTO EMPIRE CONTINUES TO EXPAND
President Donald Trump’s latest financial disclosure provides one of the clearest pictures yet of his growing involvement in the cryptocurrency industry.
The filing shows Trump earned approximately $635 million in royalties from a meme coin licensing agreement during 2025 while also reporting more than $60 million in cryptocurrency holdings across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.
A separate Reuters analysis estimates Trump-linked crypto ventures have generated approximately $2.3 billion in gains for Trump-affiliated businesses, while investors have collectively lost a similar amount as many Trump-linked tokens declined following their launches.
As cryptocurrency becomes increasingly intertwined with U.S. politics, Trump’s financial exposure to the industry is likely to remain closely watched.
STRATEGY REBOUNDS AFTER ITS WORST MONTH SINCE ADOPTING BITCOIN
MSTR finished June down approximately 45%, marking its largest monthly decline since adopting Bitcoin as its corporate treasury strategy. Despite June’s sharp decline, MSTR recovered strongly during today’s session as Bitcoin reclaimed the $60K level.
It has broken decisively above its 100-period moving average ($86.4) while reclaiming the important $87.3 support level. Price is now approaching the next major resistance near $92.4.
A sustained move above this level would target $98, followed by the psychological $100 level and the next major resistance near $104. As long as price remains above $87.3, the breakout structure remains constructive.
CRYPTO WATCH
Bitcoin is testing $60K after briefly trading below $58K, improving the market’s short-term technical outlook. It has reclaimed its 100-period moving average near $59.6K, turning it back into short-term support.
The next major resistance sits near $60.3K. A decisive close above this level would strengthen market structure and improve the probability of extending the recovery. On the downside, the reclaimed $59.6K-$60K area now becomes the first support zone to watch. A move back below this range would shift attention toward $58.3K.
From a derivatives perspective, approximately $70 million in leveraged long positions would still be liquidated if Bitcoin falls to $50K, although much of the excessive leverage has already been cleared from the market.
Holding above $60K into the daily close would significantly improve Bitcoin’s short-term technical outlook.
LIGHTER IS BECOMING DEFLATIONARY
One of this week’s most notable tokenomic developments comes from Lighter ($LIT). Since launch, the protocol has bought back approximately 15.5 million LIT, representing roughly 6.3% of total supply. Following the end of Q2, those buybacks will transition into permanent token burns.
At current revenue levels, annual buybacks are estimated at approximately 17.9 million LIT, more than double the projected yearly staking emissions. If protocol revenue remains stable,
LIT’s circulating supply would begin contracting on a net basis, creating a deflationary supply dynamic.
Technically, LIT has reclaimed its 20-day moving average and is now testing key resistance near $2.01. A successful breakout would target approximately $2.33. As long as price remains above $1.76, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
META IS TURNING AI INTO A NEW REVENUE ENGINE
Meta shares rose sharply after Bloomberg reported the company is developing Meta Compute, a cloud platform designed to monetize its AI infrastructure. The company plans to offer both managed AI services and GPU cloud capacity, effectively creating a business model similar to AWS and CoreWeave.
It has broken out of its recent consolidation while holding above the important $601 support level. If price continues holding above support, the next major upside target sits near $643.
JUPITER IS TESTING A BREAKOUT
Jupiter continues strengthening after reclaiming its 100-period moving average. The token is now attempting to break above the important $0.236 resistance zone.
A successful breakout would likely target the next major resistance around $0.276, while $0.208 remains the key support bulls need to defend.
WHAT TO WATCH?
Bitcoin’s recovery above $60K has improved the market’s short-term technical picture. The recovery, however, does not eliminate the broader macro risks facing markets. Renewed geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding global energy supplies, and evolving macroeconomic conditions remain key drivers of investor sentiment.
At the same time, today’s price action suggests that demand continues to emerge during periods of heightened uncertainty. Looking ahead, developments in the Middle East, global energy markets, and broader macroeconomic conditions are likely to remain the primary drivers of both traditional financial markets and digital assets.
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