THE DEAL ISN’T SIGNED YET MARKETS ARE ALREADY ACTING LIKE IT IS
Markets are increasingly pricing a successful outcome to the ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, with reports suggesting a formal agreement could be signed on June 19 in Geneva.
However, while optimism is growing, significant skepticism remains. According to Axios, CIA Director Ratcliffe warned Trump that intelligence gathered by U.S. agencies does not fully align with what Iranian officials are privately telling negotiators. Ratcliffe, Rubio, and Hegseth reportedly remain skeptical of the agreement, while Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner were among those supporting the negotiations.
Trump, meanwhile, has said Iran has agreed never to obtain a nuclear weapon and dismissed reports of billions of dollars in U.S. payments to Iran as “fake news.”
The market has already begun removing much of the war premium that dominated recent weeks. Oil prices have eased, risk assets have recovered, and investors are increasingly positioning for de-escalation. The challenge now is that markets are no longer pricing the possibility of a deal. They’re pricing the successful execution of one.
Those are two very different things.
ISRAEL ISN’T CELEBRATING
The deal may have reduced tensions between Washington and Tehran, but it has not eliminated geopolitical risk. Israeli officials were blindsided by the agreement and reportedly described it as: “Terrible for us.”
Reports also suggest Vance pushed Netanyahu to ease military pressure on Lebanon and was refused. Netanyahu has since stated that Israel will continue striking Iran and Lebanon whenever necessary.
In other words: The deal may lower the probability of a direct U.S.-Iran confrontation. It does not guarantee regional peace.
BOJ JUST DELIVERED ITS BIGGEST RATE HIKE IN 30 YEARS
The second major macro story today came from Japan. The Bank of Japan officially raised rates to 1.0%, the highest level since 1995, while continuing plans to reduce bond purchases toward roughly ¥2 trillion per month by 2027.
The move was widely expected. The implications are not. Historically, BOJ tightening has coincided with increased volatility across risk assets as carry trades begin unwinding.
Every major BOJ hike since 2024 has been followed by meaningful market corrections. This matters because higher Japanese rates make yen-funded carry trades less attractive, pulling liquidity from global markets.
SPACEX IS NOW WORTH MORE THAN MICROSOFT
SPCX is trading above $200+ per share, implying a valuation approaching $3 trillion and briefly pushing the company ahead of Microsoft. Since its IPO at $135, SpaceX has surged more than 60%.
For perspective: 2025 Revenue
- Amazon: $747 billion
- SpaceX: $18 billion
Investors aren’t valuing current earnings.
They’re valuing:
- Starlink
- Space launch dominance
- Defense contracts
- AI infrastructure
- The future space economy
The chart remains extremely strong. After rallying more than 35% in a matter of days, SPCX is now consolidating above its recent breakout zone.
The key level to watch sits around $197. If we see a pullback, bulls will want that level to hold as support. As long as SPCX remains above $197, the breakout structure remains intact and momentum continues favoring the upside.
The next major challenge may not come from price action. It may come from insiders. The Lockup Clock Is Ticking
According to the lockup schedule:
- 20% of eligible shares unlock around August 11
- Additional unlocks occur through September and October
- Nearly 100% of eligible shares unlock by December 9
Every SpaceX employee who has been paid in stock since 2006 is now staring at that schedule.
The question is simple: Will they hold or will they sell into one of the largest IPO rallies in history?
BITCOIN IS STARTING TO MOVE ON ITS OWN
One of the most important developments in crypto isn’t happening on the chart. It’s happening in correlations.
The historically strong relationship between Bitcoin and technology stocks has begun breaking down. For years, Bitcoin traded like a leveraged tech stock. Now that relationship appears to be weakening.
No major traditional market sector currently maintains the same strong correlation with Bitcoin that existed through 2024 and much of 2025. As this decoupling trend strengthens, Bitcoin is beginning to exhibit the characteristics of an independent macro asset, with its price increasingly influenced by factors unique to the digital asset ecosystem rather than the broader technology sector.
Meanwhile, it has recovered sharply from the recent lows near $60K, reclaiming both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Price is now testing the critical $67.2K resistance zone.
A clean breakout above this level would strengthen the bullish case and potentially trigger another move higher. On the downside, the $64.3K-$63.7K region now acts as key support. As long as BTC remains above that area, bulls maintain control of the short-term trend.
A failure at resistance could send price back toward the $60.8K support zone, which served as the foundation of the recent recovery.
ETH: BREAKOUT ATTEMPT UNDERWAY
Ethereum is also showing signs of strength. After taking support from the $1.55K-$1.60K support zone, it has reclaimed the key $1,733 level and is attempting to build a new base.
Holding above $1,733 is critical. If buyers defend that level, ETH could extend higher toward the next major resistance zone around $1,940-$1,970. However, any renewed geopolitical escalation or deterioration in market sentiment could send it back toward the recent range lows.
Fundamentally, Ethereum continues to see growing long-term conviction. Ethereum’s staking ratio has reached a new all-time high of 32.7%, meaning nearly one-third of all ETH is now locked in staking.
HYPE: BACK AT ALL-TIME HIGHS
The token has returned to its all-time high zone near $75-$76 and has consistently outperformed during every recent relief rally. Price remains firmly above both major moving averages and is now attempting a breakout into price discovery.
If buyers maintain control above current levels, the next major upside target sits near $98.5. The key support zone remains between $55-$57.
UNI: INSTITUTIONS ARE STARTING TO NOTICE
Standard Chartered has initiated coverage on Uniswap with one of the boldest forecasts seen this cycle. The bank projects UNI could rise from roughly $2.50 today to $100 by 2030, implying a potential 40x return. Their thesis is straightforward:
As trillions of dollars move on-chain and tokenized assets expand, decentralized exchanges like Uniswap could become core trading infrastructure for traditional finance.
From a technical perspective, UNI is attempting to reclaim the critical $3.00 resistance zone after taking support from the recent lows near $2.40. A successful reclaim opens the door toward $3.35-$3.40, followed by the larger resistance area near $3.75.
FOMC TOMORROW: THE TRACK RECORD ISN’T GREAT
Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision is shaping up to be the next major market catalyst and the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh. The encouraging news for investors is that the rate decision itself appears largely priced in, with CME FedWatch currently assigning a 99.3% probability that rates remain unchanged and just a 0.7% chance of another hike.
As a result, market attention will shift beyond the headline decision and toward the Federal Reserve’s updated economic projections, inflation forecasts, and the committee’s forward guidance. With a new Fed Chair at the helm, investors will be watching closely for any clues about the future direction of monetary policy, making the tone of the meeting potentially more important than the rate decision itself.
Bitcoin’s record following recent FOMC meetings hasn’t been great. It has declined after each of the last six meetings:
The key question for crypto investors is whether Bitcoin can finally break its six-FOMC-meeting losing streak, or if the Fed will once again emerge as the catalyst for another market correction.
WHAT TO WATCH
👉 Updates on U.S.-Iran deal implementation and whether both sides remain aligned on the terms
👉 Any response from Israel and developments in Lebanon
👉 Market reaction to the BOJ’s first 1% policy rate since 1995
👉 Federal Reserve rate decision and updated dot plot tomorrow
👉 Bitcoin around the $67K resistance zone
👉 Ethereum’s ability to hold above $1,733
👉 Whether SpaceX can maintain momentum above the $197 breakout level
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